ORH_wxman

Decided to look up the worst (least snowiest) Jan 1st to Feb 10th periods in ORH on record....first column is the snow they had in that period....the 2nd column is how much they got the rest of the season: 1980: 0.8"....16.2" 1955: 4.0"....10.0" 1944: 4.5"....20.9" 1919: 5.0"....16.6" 1989: 5.0"....17.7" 2020: 5.7"....????? 2007: 5.9"....42.1" 1913: 6.0"....6.7" 1992: 6.4"....19.2" 1937: 6.9"....12.0" 1947: 7.2"....19.1" 1933: 7.6"....56.2" 1962: 7.9"....45.6" 1997: 9.0"....49.3" January 1913 popped up again (we discussed that month during the 70F torch last month)....epic weenie suicides that year hanging themselves by their knickers. That was the worst season for post-Feb 10th snowfall on the list too. You can see that 2020 is pretty bad for Jan 1-Feb 10 snowfall....just outside the top 5.

The winter has been about as good as 1985.

Created a new thread to isolate the Feb 13 talk...inside 3 days now

I remember I responded to several of your melts in 2015-2016 with that....lol. Or I trolled you with excessive cold maps after a cutter (or during an SNE special) in January 2014 less than a year after you complained you weren't getting good cold shots. Haha.

Yeah I'll keep an eye on it...but I'm keeping expectations low. If we get a solid 30-40 mile tick south that looks consistent across model guidance, then I'll def start honking more....hard to see that happening though. Still, we do get surprises in the positive direction on these sometimes. Just not this winter...lol. I'd feel a little more optimistic if the synoptics were good...we could really use a high holding firm to our north....even if that retreating high kind of hung on a little more in Maine/Nova Scotia, that might be enough. We've not been able to get the little nuances work for us very often....same longwave setup but with a little kink in the flow might produce a way more wintry result.....but we were due to regression. I feel like we've been overly lucky in the past decade-plus on front enders.

GFS def wasn't bad verbatim....prob advisory level snows at least down to pike and maybe into N CT. I'm just not expecting it to be correct....marginal midlevels ahead of it with low pressure up in Ontario/Quebec instead of a nice high creating resistance. I'm expecting this to tickle northwest until we're mostly out of the game. Euro is already nearly there.

Dusting off the "congrats dendrite" auto-reply this next 10 days.

Mirror opposite of December, lol....took until Dec 9th to get a positive that month. Maybe we'll get some unexpected cold and a pattern shift the final week to complete the mirror....Dec torched at the end of the month.

lol.....yeah. Several models do show some front end for SNE....GFS shows it too, but I'm selling for now south of Rt 2....at least selling anything more than an inch or two followed by cold rain. This is one of those systems too that could just keep bumping NW in the final 48h. There's nothing really stopping it.

Yeah this is basically a non-event for SNE unless it clearly trends better....I'd prob be a little more enthused on it north of Rt 2 in the interior, but that's about it.

1980 had 0.8 inches between new years and mid February. Lol. 2007 was pretty bad too until Vday. 1989 was putrid and never got better. 1955 was really bad too...that was the all time lowest snowfall season on record. But yeah, it's not easy.

It's pretty rare to have a 20+ inch gradient between the two (especially with still a chunk of climo yet to come)....happened in '07-'08 too but at least that season was above average in both spots....so it was easier to take, haha.

'96-'97 would have been close (early Dec '96 for interior) but then Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997 happened. That's really the only example i can think of that came close.

That's typically how we get crap seasons....we miss a lot of the advisory type events that tend to add up.... ORH got smoked too but has had very little since then....ORH had over 27 inches in December, but 6 inches since then, lol. HubbDave did get more in the Dec event...I think he had over 21 or 22 inches. His area also got a few inches on some of these front enders when ORH got like 0.5" or something. So it added up to his area being around 52-53 inches.

For the coast that is true, but it's going to get harder in the interior if we don't start getting some half-decent events in the next 2 weeks. ORH is at 33.3 inches...they will need another 36" or so to get to average.

Yeah looks really marginal....not interesting unless we see a solid 30-40 mile tick south and it's consistent on guidance. This is a storm mostly for north of the MA border....maybe far NW MA at elevation does ok too.

Congrats dendrite.

Thursday tickled slightly north overnight so no reason to get invested in that one down here.

18z euro was quite a bit flatter with Thursday’s system. Enough to be interesting for SNE and not just NNE. I ain’t biting yet but today has definitely seen a trend flatter.

If things break right, ski country could do really well over the next 10-12 days. There’s actually several little threats in there and none of them look to be super cutterish.

Happy hour GFS still trying to give pretty good snows to pike region.

I had a pack like that for about 10-12 days in January. It didn’t feel much better to me. Super long stretches of no major storm threats getting inside of 4 days is really the defining theme to me the past 7 weeks. I probably would have been grumpier if it was temps closer to normal or colder than normal and bare ground. But having constant highs in the upper 30s to low 40s didn’t have me super excited that there was a 2 inch half-thawed glacier on the ground. Im definitely a snow pack guy too...but I also prefer some legit storms to track. It’s been really boring. Seems like each event we’re tracking pennies and the occasional nickel and usually slop/transition events...outside of VT of course where they got that solid CCB a few days ago. Either way, hopefully there’s something to track that gives a solid chance for warning snows to a good chunk of the forum.

I dunno...you literally posted a 75 hour NAM map that shows zero precip falling in SNE and no commentary.

Euro OP was pretty fun for NNE in clown range. Two juicy events. Just cold enough for snow there and just warm enough for rain in SNE. Though there could be icing in interior SNE. Kind of like last event.

Ukie is actually not bad N of pike for Thursday. Gets advisory snows it looks like (disclaimer: didn’t look at sfc temps....only 850 and 925) Still kind of an ugly system but I’m just the messenger.