ORH_wxman

Watch us get skunked in February and then pull a two footer in March. Maybe Jerry’s 1960 finish will happen.

Meh. I get not tracking a D5/6 system. But let’s be honest, if the euro showed a hit and all other guidance was a cutter, there’s no way anyone would believe it either.

This will be the time the Euro suite nails it to a T being an outlier.

Euro and EPS hate 2/13 but Ukie/GFS/GGEM all have a threat there.

I’d like to see some agreement too. EPS in the 11-15 flipped to more hostile the past two runs but the GEFS and GEPS look quite a bit different. That tells me there are some pretty big uncertainties. I understand the sentiment that this winter won’t produce much considering what’s happened the past 7-8 weeks and the look going forward isn’t coming up triple 7s....but I’m not gonna pretend that we know that we’re not going to get a good storm either. Pretty silly actually on 2/7. For all we know, the landscape could totally change by Presidents’ Day.

EPS def got worse today in the 11-15. But it’s also true they’ve been pretty bad in that timeframe this season. So we’ll take it a day at a time and see what it looks like once we get inside d10.

Yes. Assuming that’s the way it actually was...but it easily could have been that the ice on the bottom broke off when he snapped the twig for the pic. Thats my guess as to what happened since you don’t normally get ice accretion purely on one side like that. Usually there will at least be some on the other side.

I didn’t forecast a great period. I’m just not making stupid posts about snow being done for the season.

Nobody is buying the new Kevin act. Lol. He’s just saying it’s over so he won’t become emotionally invested too early like usual locking in some tedious setup at t days out. I actually applaud the tactic. It will make him wait until inside of about 3 days until he is “back on board”.

No it will be colder. Temps are falling pretty quick not too far west after a brief spike.

Had a huge temp spike from 34F to 48F here that took about 10 minutes and that also only lasted literally like 3-5 minutes....already dumping back to 45F. Really gusty out of the S briefly and now WSW.

Yep....I get them year-round at my feeders.

Nice temp gradient....not quite the 30F gradient from Dec '08, but still a good 20F over about 10 miles in S ORH county to NE CT.

KSFZ at 967mb....lowest I have seen so far. Doesn't really come close to anything around it though (PVD is 973.4 and OWD is 972.0)....so might have to be tossed.

Lower than ORH (972.4), yet ORH is an 020 wind direction at 9 knots....this low is pretty contorted because of the CAD.

IJD rocketed up to 55F with S wind. Tolland probably torching now or soon.

Who's all-in with me on the D6 ukie? A nice 2007-2008 style warning SWFE.

Yeah BTV is 24F now. Looks like the lower level cold just needs to filter into the mountains and it will go powder pretty quick.

Let's see if we can craft something up for you.....

Yeah left a bad taste in what was otherwise a pretty nice winter. We also whiffed an opportunity on St PAtty's day that year....looked really goo like 3-4 days out and then got squashed...I think DC and BWI got snow out of it.

There were a couple misses actually....one biggie hit CNE/NNE and narrowly missed us...I think that was on 3/12-13/14 and then there was another that destroyed the cape on 3/26/14....I think the outer cape had a legit blizzard with snow up to a foot and we got absolutely nothing. There was a sharp cutoff too...not sure there was anything at all west of the canal.

Low is already elongated from like ABE over to LI sound and near the Cape. Can see it pretty clearly on the sfc plot with the winds....and the pressure at ABE is like 977...that's the lowest I can find at quick glance

Mar '14 was horrible....had like 4 inches of snow the whole month but it was like -6F or -7F....lol. I think it was the coldest March since 1960.

One of the few times I wished I was back in Ithaca, NY for a storm vs interior MA

I'd rate '15-'16 worse here too over interior MA...but once you were near the coast and then down in CT, it was much better than this year...southern CT got a decent hit from the Jan '16 blizzard....and those coastal areas did not really cash in on the Dec 1-3, 2019 storm earlier this winter.