ORH_wxman

More like between 2-3F too warm at the Logan ASOS based off of surrounding mesonets. Looks like it's actually degraded a bit further over the 6 months or so after being pretty stable from mid 2018 to mid 2019 after that first huge step-jump in early 2018. So it's closer to 3F these days. .

Winter saved for Scooter? ML magic

Ok, this is a bit different than your claim last week when you were going nuts on anyone who mentioned how the AO would be relaxing....which it clearly is. Does it necessarily mean snow? Of course not and we said that at the time...but it's less hostile than it was. It is still a somewhat ugly pattern, but it wouldn't surprise me if we get a snow event in the next 2 weeks.

AO is actually already crashing...and will be down 4-5 SD (!!!) from what it was a couple days ago soon....you actually said it wouldn't do that and couldn't see how it would crash down. Now, it's still not a good pattern, but it definitely is changing.

I would grade it worse if nothing fell at all and then we got December’s snow in March. Personal preference of course but give me the holiday snow and snow cover any day. We’ll see how this one finishes. Honestly, the heart of this winter has been pretty similar to ‘96-‘97 around ORH. Maybe save the exceptional 2 day torch in January. But very little snow like that year after the big December. The winter finished strong though in March and of course the epic all-timer on 3/31-4/1...so it was a bookend winter with garbage in between. If we have a good finish to this one then it would change the feel of it...kind of like that winter which I look back at as a lot better than it really should be looked at.

This winter is definitely not as bad as 11-12 or 01-02 at least in interior MA. We never had a stretch like the first half of December those winters. The heart of winter has been about as bad as it gets...but at least we had snow on the ground virtually the entire month of December (save like 4 days) and several decent events (including a 17 incher). So there’s no way I could rate this winter worse than those. If I only graded it based on january and February then I might. But obviously those aren’t the only months that make up the winter.

Prob gonna be great there after Thursday’s storm. Looks like some upslope behind it for several days. Hoping the primary trends a little snowier up north...gonna try and sneak a day in skiing playing hooky from work in maybe 2 or 3 weeks.

Ukie looks like it transfers to coastal faster than other guidance.

He barfed all over my explorer after about 3 craft beers in Hartford. Ryan drank him under the table.

Except wishing for an EML in place with a strong cold front in New England is like wishing for a blizzard in Atlanta.

Prob a little heavier 3/8/05 than 3/13/1888 on the GFS...but still pretty fun solution. The week period following the 2/27 threat is probably our best shot....you still have the mean trough over the east and a chance for a few shortwaves to dive into it.

Yeah I mean...you can kind of compare the different regions....the Paramus/Ridgewood/Paterson zone would be about the equivalent to the Bedford to Reading area in relation to BOS. I think those areas of NJ average probably low 30s while Bedford to Reading is around 60 inches...so mabye slightly less than double. You go further inland up into like Wantage NJ, thats about the same distance/direction to New Ipswich, NH and similar elevations over 1000 feet. Again, probably a bit less than double (low to mid 40s vs 80ish). Due west around 40 miles at similar elevation might be some place like Chester, NJ vs ORH....that's prob mid/upper 30s against 70ish.

If you are going by official first order climate site, then BOS is not double....NYC is 25.1" and BOS is 43.8" for the 1981-2010 normals. If you go by general metro area, then it's probably close to double. The general metro area of BOS is almost completely west of the climate site at Logan, so their snowfall is going to be skewed a lot higher than NYC's general metro area.

Still a long ways out...plenty of time for large shifts.

Trended further west from 00z even....gonna have to come back the other way for snowier solutions even in NNE.

A lot will depend on next week. If it slices through MSS, then it’s rains to Maine. If it tries to consolidate more east over SNE or east of SNE then it could be a good system at least for NNE.

Lol. Yeah. I don’t get the connection. Even if it works out this time...

I'm just not really interested in a system that is 7 days out. It's definitely possible it turns into a legit snow threat....but I'm waiting until at least Saturday night or Sunday to start thinking seriously about it. But yeah....I've mentioned previously that this storm could produce if things line up....it has some amazing dynamics with it. But I'm waiting until we're closer to the 100 hour mark before really analyzing the details if it is still even a viable threat by then.

That's a crazy dynamic system on the Euro....if baroclinic zone can set up a little further east, then that would get many into some fun. Not expecting it right now....but we'll see what it look like on Sunday.

Good chance in NYC....although to be fair, it never arrived there this year. We had some fun in December in SNE but garbage since then.

Yeah...I'm not disputing Archambault events....we all know they exist. But here's a quick list of larger storms that had no phase change in a -NAO pattern off the top of my head in the past decade or so: Both March 2018 storms 3/8/13 12/26/10 All the Feb 2010 storms Both big dogs in Jan 2011 were phase change events....but that month was very negative...briefly going positive just after the storms. That negative baseline was really important though....especially for 1/12/11. I didn't put anything from 2015 on there since we never had a negative NAO....stayed positive.

Yep me too. Without looking at the dailies, composite monthly negative will average more snow than composite monthly positive. Obviously if you can, you want to look at more detail....but if all we can choose from are monthly composites, I'll take the negative all day long.

It got marginally better....esp after the 3/7-8 storm....but that pattern was almost purely Atlantic....the 3/21 storm probably had the best PAC of the 4 storms, but that isn't saying much. Here's a GFS loop of the pattern right as the 3/2 storm is ending. Look at how marginal the airmass is even in the 3/8 storm. But the block forced the track underneath us. That storm was already negatively tilted out in the western plains....it probably goes through lake superior without the blocking. You can see how the marginal cold is being supplied from the north in Quebec. Not really from central Canada via an EPO/PNA dump. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/20180303/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/20180303/MRF_0z/mrfloop2.html

Transient blocks work...but you usually need an underlying good pattern to begin with....2015 was so ridiculously good in the PAC...a couple of our big dog storms we had no transient block at all but it didn't matter. Even 2013 had a perfectly timed ridge over the Dakotas. March 2018 was a legit monster NAO block that kept regenerating....that was def not transient. You obviously want to ebb and flow a bit, but the consistency of it through the month is what allowed us to have 4 major storm threats.

Feb 2013 did not have big Atlantic blocking...it had a well-timed 50/50 low though which kind of acts as a transient block. There was some east-based iceland ridging, but overall it was pretty pedestrian.