ORH_wxman

Euro seasonal is better than the others but in an absolute sense, it is still pretty inaccurate. It absolutely shit the bed last year even on the October and November versions IIRC. I also like to look at the H5 anomalies and not the 2m temp anomalies...they often don't seem in sync and the H5 anomaly forecast is going to be easier for the models to hit. IIRC, back in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, it was showing these monster ridges over AK/EPO region (that largely verified) but they had warm anomalies in southern Canada and into most of the CONUS which is totally at odds with that pattern. So the H5anomaly was a lot more accurate for forecasting the sensible wx than the 2m temp anomaly.

Most of us hate high dewpoints in here. It’s a minority of posters led by DamageInTolland.

The Himalayas (below the snow level of course) during monsoon season are a good bet for the record. They get absolutely unreal precip for a few months of the year.

I think you can be grandfathered in on that. There are several bars in ORH I used to go to that didn’t serve food. Like you could buy a bag of chips or something but they had zero actual meals or even hot snacks.

I don’t think anything looks particularly bad. The N ATL cold pool is kind of annoying but it doesn’t drive the pattern...it can just act to reinforce a +NAO if it stays that way. Weak Nina is actually a pretty decent enso state. Most of the other stuff is pretty stochastic and not easy to forecast.

We’ve now fallen behind 2012 on both area and extent for losses. It didn’t take long to close the 800k extent gap. There is a good amount of weakened ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi sector, but I don’t see us finishing below 2012 on either metric.

Was it last year when we had that ridiculous airmass to the north in August? Could’ve been 2018...can’t remember exactly. But there was accumulating snow in Quebec with it. I think parts of Maine had a freeze.

The ice bath sitting there in the N ATL doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence for the NAO. Hopefully it doesn’t end up mattering. GOA has been cooling a lot too recently though still above average while the warm pool south of Aleutians has been strengthening....wonder if the PDO will try and go negative this winter.

Yeah it all depends on the relative location to the terrain around you. If you are on a local hill at 1500, it won’t radiate nearly as well as a local depression at 1500. Around there, you have such steep hills and mountains, that the differences get magnified. You prob radiate decent being generally between two large mountains but not as well as down the road along rt 2 in a relative depression.

Yeah the terrain is so steep in the whites there that you can have massive radiational cooling differences over small distances.

Loons out this evening

Yeah the pandemic has driven a stake through a lot of zombies.

Yeah, shortys don’t exactly represent the same thing as long lived majors.

Yeah 1804 hurricane-turned-blizzzard sounds about right.

Even a hurricane Bob like 100-150 miles west would be ridiculous.

Those other groups should have demanded hazard pay. Some got it actually because some of those workers were unionized and other companies voluntarily started offering hazard pay. But many people did not get it. Schools are one of the worst though for environment. My wife’s classroom is poorly ventilated and has no windows. Packing a bunch of teenagers in there who will be lazy about keeping their masks on correctly is definitely a breeding ground for super spreader events.

We’ve mostly been staying put. We did pick up a few items at hannfords and before the rain came in yesterday we got ice cream at the Gazebo. We’ll grab some take out steamed lobsters tomorrow night from Mack’s probably. I actually haven’t done campfire grill yet. We’ve almost went a couple times in our past trips...we’ll def make the trip over there next time now that I know it’s good.

Megan has been in the teacher’s union meetings the past couple weeks....and they are getting a lot of pressure from the outside to just return to school with very little safety precautions in place. I was saying that the union should demand hazard pay if they are gonna be forced to teach in front of a couple hundred teens per day.

Amazing day on the lake

Yeah weak Ninas are good for snow in December. Ninas in general are good for snowy Decembers but you are right that the weak ones seem to have fewer duds mixed in. Dec 2016 was kind of near average. But Dec 2017, 2008, 2005, 2000, 1995 were all above average for the most part (2000 was kind of meh along the coast but good inland)...Dec ‘71 wasn’t great but Nov ‘71 was lol...and then the rest of winter was big. Dec 83 was similarly good inland but pretty mediocre right on the coast.

Yeah I remember the pitchforks being out for CL&P after Oct 2011. Towns literally next door that were serviced by other companies were restored while the CL&P customers went for days and days longer without power. In some cases weeks.

Ahh. I figured. I don’t remember reading about eversource back then. Seems like eversource swallowed up all their subsidiaries.

Whatever happened to CT light and power? Are they still around? I remember they were eviscerated after the Oct 2011 storm after some criticism during Irene 7-8 weeks earlier. There was a map along the MA/CT border that showed the CT border towns with like 80-100% outages and the MA border towns with very few.

I’m still a little puzzled as to why it didn’t gust that hard for places like ORH into interior E MA and N RI...they were under pretty strong LLJ late afternoon and there was actually some sunshine there so you would have thought very good LL lapse rates and mixing potential. But it was basically a clunker for winds....you wouldn’t have even known a storm moved through looking at pics of my neighborhood....and it’s a susceptible area for tree damage too on a hill. There were some pockets of convective showers that produced...esp closer to the south shore, but otherwise, meh. But im struggling to meteorologically explain it. Maybe the LLJ just weakened a lot more than every piece of guidance had it as it moved northeast. Or maybe there was just enough extra land friction there...not sure. The latter wouldn’t explain places like BAF up to Chris in greenfield getting big winds though while the 495 belt was experiencing merely a gusty summer afternoon.

Irene was pretty strong in SE MA and the Cape. This one def focused the best wind further west. It seemed to be a lot spottier further east driven by convective pockets.