ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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MA doesn’t have shelter in place in effect.
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It’s still not quite letting go of that northern stream involvement. But it’s been trending a little more toward the more consolidated look. We’ll see which idea wins. I could honestly see it going either way.
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My current spot is really weird. I could see getting 1-2” of slop or 8-10” of paste. Out near 495 at 350-400 feet...could def go either way. At least there’s something to track inside of 24 hours here with a lot of uncertainty. Makes each model run interesting.
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If you want to go to best spot in N ORH county on easterly flow, I’d go like rt 101 in Ashburnham off 140 there...there’s some parking lots around too on that road. It’s about 1300 feet there. Weenie ridge in Princeton is never a bad spot but not easy to find a spot to just pull over. I guess you could do ranger station on mountain rd at WaWa....or just hang out a couple hundred feet lower (still 1200 feet) at the center of town.
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The easterly flow at 900-950 could destroy the east slopes there from winter hill to weenie ridge to Ashburnham area. Well see if they stay cold enough.
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RGEM is supporting some of the crazy NAM solutions. It even dynamically cools N CT back to heavy snow after it flips to rain initially. Clown map is hilarious
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NAM keeps showing that nice bent back WF that would really allow it to pound nickels for several hours. Euro was more aggressive with that feature last run so we’ll have to watch.
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Let’s keep it PG. lol
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Euro is too skimpy on qpf with that look...take ‘em up if that verifies. With heavier precip, the BL starts to look better too.
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Euro is really nice looking for Wednesday afternoon/night for a large chunk of SNE and southern CNE. That’s some midlevel magic there.
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Euro actually cooled a decent amount. Starting to get more narrow goalposts. It had been one of the warmest models. This run prob keeps like N ORH county over to near ASH all snow.
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Yes. You want that southern s/w to basically plow eastward under us with minimal interaction up north. But we are getting very close in now. I expect the euro solution to more or less verify. Toss the NAM type solutions.
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Huh? GFS has been wayyy south. Doesn’t even give CNE much precip...at least until 12z today when it was starting to give advisory amounts. I’d say the GFS is catching up to the foreign globals. Not the other way around.
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1996-1997 basically fits that tenor for ORH. We had almost 30” in December (almost all from the early month system) and then got largely nothing until March/April...capped off of course by the big 3/31-4/1 blizzard.
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Maybe near BDL. Interior MA is too far gone to finish near normal. Lol. It can be less pathetic though. Although maybe N ORH county could get kind of close to normal if they got double digits in the next 3 days now that I think about it. That small area has been a little better. I think hubbdave has like mid to high 50s for snow total this season? He averages near 75. ORH needs like 30-35” more to get near normal.
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Even though this is just the 3/24 thread, NAM croaks many in round two as well. Its like this was run out of my basement. Too bad it’s the NAM
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ORH obliterator on the NAM. Not buying those double digit totals over interior MA yet until euro cools it off a bit.
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There’s a bent back WF in midlevels. That’s usually a good sign for a big thumping just north of it. So definitely interior elevated areas N of pike could see several hours of moderate to heavy snow...even if it does eventually flip to rain. Euro has been the warmest...we’ll see if it cools just a bit to prolong the snows further south. But even the euro would support a few hours of good snows in SNE.
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Rgem gone wild
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Still favors interior but at least the high is a bit better. So even though the flow comes out of the east, it’s a really dry arctic dewpoint source so the coast could probably sustain snow...at least for a while. Still a lot of time to work out details.
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I’m morbidly curious to see what Kevin’s reaction would be if that map verified. Nevermind ORH quintupling his total but Fairfield county and Tauntonblizz doubling his totals. Could we surpass the epic 2010 MLK meltdown?
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SNE got NAM’d...absolutely nukes out the midlevels (I’m selling this btw....but still funny to see it)
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18z Euro is starting to look pretty impressive for Wednesday night. Only goes out to 90 but another frame or two it was ready to blow up. This one might sneak up in folks being distracted both by the Monday system and all the coronavirus crap.
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If something like the 12km NAM happened, we prob have to watch that even a bit further south because that ML center goes nuts we’ll southeast. That’s a classic spot for busting too warm on guidance. But you obviously need that ML nuking out to make it happen.
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You might need to up amounts near YBY. Your area over to S NH is in a decent spot. There will be a tight cutoff to your east with onshore flow but you might be far enough west.
