ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah you'll prob be hovering right at freezing....maybe just a tick below during the heaviest stuff.
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You might be ground zero for the waterlogged ratios....lol. I'm guessing you stay mostly snow there, but it's gonna be isothermal 33F paste....bring 'em down.
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The CT/RI snows could be like waterlogged paste....3-4" could really start causing some issues. Looking at those 925mb temps at 6z...it's close call so it's gonna be wet.
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Haha, this post was definitely designed to trigger Tolland residents.
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Slightly less than earlier
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Def a known bias...model qpf tends to put the max a little south of where the best ML fronto actually is. They become a little low-level happy. But most of SNE is going to rip at some point in this as the fronto stuff comes in from southwest to northeast. It may linger a bit longer up north though as it deforms out.
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Here's the BDL sounding at 1am on the 3km NAM....look at that crosshair sig on the omega plus the really deep MAUL
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Yeah prob around that time for CT...closer to midnight-2 I'd guess when it looks the best there and then an hour or two later further northeast. There's also a really good crosshair sig on the front end of this....so there could be some pretty sick rates for a couple hours.
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It's a very deep MAUL too...like well over 200mb thick...so that signifcantly increases the chance of TSSN.
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DTW with the rare 1/8 SM obs KDTW 171359Z 19004KT 1/8SM R03R/2000V2800FT +SN FG VV004 00/M02 A3017 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 P0001 T00001017
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Most models have looked great there in the midlevels. The ideal situation is to get the thump and then it deforms overhead as the whole thing starts sliding east
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Yeah I know there's probably amounts in other parts of the valley, but we can only go with the data we have and maybe extrapolate to a reasonable distance. But it was def bugging me after you said BDL had 1.3"....surprised I missed a first order station, so I at least wanted to get that on there.
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Jerry's massive fetish RPM maps....here's 09z...12z coming out as we speak
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Updated, lol:
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Yeah I actually must have just omitted or accidentally forgot to plot BDL on there. I do remember getting a much of traces on the valley locations. A lot of them being coops that probably waited until the morning of 5/10 to measure so they may have not captured measurable that had fallen the previous evening. That's always a risk with doing maps of veyr late season events....your data is more susceptible to obs time biases.
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BOS is a lock to get at least an inch. Any ptype algorithm that has BOS as rain with a 950mb temp of like -0.5C is tossed. (I'm looking at you GFS)
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I remember the 4/26/00 event too. Terribly forecasted IIRC. Had 2-3" in ORH county. Surprise ULL. Those Lowell numbers are prob way lowballed in '87 and '77 though....but that coop I think typically only measured once per day, so that time of the year if you miss the measurement at the end, then you'll prob be measuring melting slush hours later.
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4/19/18....yeah there was some light accumulations in spots.
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5/18/02?
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Jack will prob be ORH county to maybe E berks where they don’t dryslot quickly and the deeper moisture stays for longer. You’ll do fine though.
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Might as well give Jerry his fetish maps one last time this season between now and tomorrow night... Here’s 00z:
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Overdone obviously, but ORH would be my pick for the jackpot in this outside of some random spot at 2k in the berks.
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Yeah Tblizz hanging onto snow while Kevin is dumbfounded. Lol.
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That’s a big weenie run though for most of MA.
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00z NAM is back to furnacing southern areas. Every time I think it’s finally going to stabilize....
