ORH_wxman

I don’t think I’ll ever see as bad a 4 year stretch as 1988-1989 through 1991-1992 winters. Just brutal. At least I hope I don’t see it, lol.

The blocking gets pretty extreme one some of the guidance later next week and into early January....that probably has at least some staying power. (fwiw....and I know it's not much....but the weeklies keep the -NAO blocking right through late January...finally breaking it down at the end of the month) We'll see though....sure beats having a death vortex over Greenland/Davis Strait

EPS look good out in the extended....there's a lot of NAO/AO blocking. We're going to have chances with that type of blocking....even with a pretty meh Pacific. EPO region actually does briefly attain some pretty big ridging around D7-10, so don't be surprised if the progs for near New Years and beyond show up colder as Canada may trend colder than currently shown if that EPO ridge materializes. I definitely would be optimistic in the longer range despite some turds in the immediate punch bowl over the next week or so.

Yeah pack it in for a few days....then recheck to see if 1/1 looks good. There's a small chance 12/29 could still be pretty wintry, but it would require some changes to what we see right now.

Yeah it's really a shitty setup with the Xmas storm retrograding into Hudson/Baffin region. I think we're going to need the 12/29 system to re-orient the blocking to more favorable with a bad Pacific not helping. 1/1 will have a chance if that happens.

Euro looks like a cutter for 12/29.

Ukie is actually just a straight cutter for 12/29....albeit kind of a weak one.

They aren;t out that far yet.

Need more confluence to north....Xmas storm becomes too wrapped up and retrogrades which doesn't help. Grinch storm gives us two Christmas presents..... Euro/Ukie did look a little more favorable so we'll see if they try and produce at 12z.

12/29 looks pretty crappy....but can't rule out interior snows. A lot will depend on how the deepening Xmas storm behaves to our northeast as that is the source of any confluence....if it lifts N easily or retrogrades too far W, then it's probably no dice for snows in SNE and maybe even CNE/eastern NNE.

Yeah already offshore E MA by 12z Xmas morning. Just when we thought the new GFS might be reliable.....

Yeah it’s slowing down every run too so it’s going to be tropical most of the day on Xmas instead of the front coming through early morning or overnight. Prob technically a white Xmas in many places at 7am but mudslides by lunchtime/afternoon.

No. Looks like another rainstorm.

Looks like the slower models are going to win the battle and all of us are going to wake up with tropical dewpoints. Hideous.

Hope the NAM is wrong. It still has the cold front back in BGM/AVP area at 12z. Probably all day on Xmas in the 50s/60s with that setup, lol.

White Christmas at IJD and brown up in powderfreak’s condo courtyard?

I think it probably survives over the interior at least. Might be close if the slower solutions materialize....

Euro still has FROPA around 18z on Xmas...would be nice to move that up 6 hours. GFS is more like 06z-09z but it's probably wrong....it has support from the NAM, lol.

Looked similar to 12z. No trend.

These small events are nice when they are falling on top of a robust pack. Kind of useless when it’s bare ground.

EPS is interested in 12/29

Fatties falling here. Starting to coat things up.

Rap dumps an inch or so for central/western areas in the next 4-6 hours.

Euro still bad for the grinch storm but it sped things up a lot...by about 12 hours from late Xmas night for FROPA on last night’s run to 18z Xmas day on today’s run. Let’s speed that up another 12 hours and we’re looking better.