ORH_wxman

Euro was too far NW...was showing that CCB slug several runs in a row

30 miles SE or NW makes a huge difference. Don’t get married yet. Euro is king but it’s been wobbling a little too. It actually quietly shit the bed in tonight’s system inside of 36 hours.

Sorry guys. Ran the 18z NAM out of my basement. It’ll go back on 00z.

Decent chance for flakes during Saturday even if you don't get them from the main system....the instability under the ULL is going to produce a lot of convective showers that are probably going to be graupel/straight snow. Esp any heavier ones.

Today went about 30 miles SE at the last second. Still disagreement on this one. I'd favor CNE/NNE right now, but nothing is set in stone.

May '77 was prob once in 100-200 year event...this one couldn't match it even if it took the perfect track. It's not quite the type of upper air situation May 77 was with the slower moving (but rapidly intensifying) cutoff. The cold shot though is pretty historic.

Chicken choker on the Euro

I'm predicting a gradual transition from mid spring to late spring by early June

RPM is a whiff SE....lol. Ukie/GFS were also whiffs SE. Pretty big spread for <3 days out. I think the more amped solutions have the right idea, but by how much is the huge question. Even an 80/20 compromise betwene something like the NAM and the whiffs puts much of SNE into accumulating snow. It's also possible that the models are so out to lunch that even the amped solutions like the NAM and Canadian aren't far enough north and this ends up an SLK to Powderfreak snowstorm. We've seen that happen before too inside of 72 hours.

Lol...it's a 66 hour NAM....25 miles makes a massive difference.

Not much...ends as snow...maybe a coating to an inch?

NAM crushes NW MA, the chickens into Maine this run.

In ORH, there was relatively little tree damage up on winter hill, but once you were down below about 600 feet it was really noticeable. Pretty amazing actually.

Airmass is legit on the back side of the system....wouldn't be surprised to see even the coast flash to heavy snow for a brief time before it ends.

Lol. NAM is legit snowstorm for many in SNE. That’s so cold down in the 900-925 layer once the system gets going. It’s like -3C at 925mb.

Lol NAM has advisory snows for SE MA tomorrow night.

Lol. He’s actually pretty hilarious. It’s gotta be an act.

Airmass is pretty marginal tomorrow night. Leaning against any accumulating snow on that unless it really rips for a bit. Maybe mangled flakes mixing in though. Friday night has a more legit airmass so that won’t take as much to produce.

Not out until just after 8. DST FTL.

So GFS and Ukie are whiffs. GGEM/Euro/NAM are huggers. Split the difference...congrats on the historic snowstorm Scooter.

Kevin's summer 1816 repeat finally comes true the year he doesn't predict it?

Yeah thats SE of previous runs. Sfc low might technically not be, but that doesn't mater as much as the upper air stuff which is def SE of the 00z run.

Looked like a colder version of 5/18/02 setting up (2002 panel is on the bottom)

Convective temps are in the 30s across some spots and at least in the 40s elsewhere. TTs around 60 or even higher(!!). Good chance of thunder where any cells pop. GFS actually shows CAPE getting to near 700 J/KG over central/western MA, lol. Hopefully it keeps up on model guidance. Still 4 days out so things could change.

Yeah that has slowly trended SE....could see interior hills flip over before ending. Then we get the chance at cold pool thunder snow showers and thunder graupel showers on Saturday.