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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    It’ll nail that but then puke on itself for 1/22. Start blasting White Snake.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I’m pretty skeptical of this 1/22 storm right now. Euro basically on its own here. In the past, I’d really give it a lot more respect because it’s nailed storms so many times at D5 while being on an island by itself but it hasn’t done that too much in the past 2-3 seasons. Still, it’s the best model so can’t totally discount it. I’m sure the EPS will like it since they weren’t bad at 06z either.
  3. ORH_wxman
    That gets kicked east really fast. Hopefully it comes in more amped on future runs because that’s a tight squeeze…red flags there.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah well I’m not counting on a repeat of a miraculous phase again to turn this due north. Euro looks pretty decent at 114h for the 1/22 threat. I’d like to see more guidance jump on it though.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Wave spacing looks like dogshit in both events. Gonna need help…24th is more viable.
  6. ORH_wxman
    This stuff is gonna be the worst when it refreezes.
  7. ORH_wxman
    NAM loves the frontal wave but no other guidance biting that much. GFS does get some snow into SE areas. Maybe an inch or so.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I didn’t trust it all to melt in the next several hours and it would have been an epic disaster if it refroze.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Just got rid of the slush on the driveway. Absolutely hideous.
  10. ORH_wxman
    06z EPS trying for 1/22-23 but a little wide right on the mean. You can see plenty of westward members though.
  11. ORH_wxman
  12. ORH_wxman
    5.5” on winter hill before the changeover.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Still getting hammered with huge aggregates. But I think the end is near. Temp up to 32.5F
  14. ORH_wxman
    Monster aggregates here. Looks like about 1.5 so far
  15. ORH_wxman
    Hopefully Beast grabs 8-10” before the flip. Good base builder for them
  16. ORH_wxman
    3k looks warmer too.
  17. ORH_wxman
    EPS has a weak signal for any time between 1/23 and 1/26
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it was really inside of 6 days. More like 132 hours or so. But even this past system was an exception to the rule. You typically won’t see model guidance honing in with such small Run to run changes 5 days out.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah euro is zilch.
  20. ORH_wxman
    May have to watch for wave along the front Wed night/early Thu.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Dover NH
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah N ORH county will prob do decent…they will have some assist on the east flow too with a little bit of orographic cooling. I don’t think it’s going to be that good south of there. I’m expecting maybe a couple sloppy inches…but wouldn’t be surprised if I end up with less than that. I’d consider it a huge win if I scored more than 3”.
  23. ORH_wxman
    No, I don’t think ZR/IP will be much of a big deal at all in SNE. The warmth between 925-sfc comes in before it does aloft. So I think it goes almost straight to rain from snow…maybe a very brief period of ZR/IP for a few spots.
  24. ORH_wxman
    This likely becomes very elevation-dependent in the final couple hours before the flip to rain. We could see a scenario where after 2” of snow, I get 2 hours of 0.20” QPF/hour of massive wet aggregates at 34F but it only adds another inch or less while ORH grabs another 3” of paste in that same 2 hour span.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Correct. At least for most of SNE/CNE (different story back in interior NY and PA) Very little sleet in this as the warmth comes in at the low levels first.
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