ORH_wxman

Would be nice to finally time some confluence right, which is what it happening on those 12z runs GFS/GGEM...perfect timing on that shortwave in Ontario/Quebec to force it underneath.

GGEM is all snow for SNE too on 1/19-20 except maybe the Cape and south coast.

I think it was 1936...may have been 1937 though.

GFS is coming in a lot flatter again for Jan 19-20. I think at minimum, NNE has a good chance to keep that one frozen, but perhaps even SNE can get in on the game if we keep that trend up.

IT has that round 2 early Monday which adds another couple inches.

Yeah that winter was a furnace, but we had that one obscene cold shot. Not easy to get Logan airport on the water to -9F.....I think that was their 3rd coldest reading of all time at the current airport site. Only Feb 1943 and Jan 1957 were colder.

When did they build the airport outside of town? Does it usually radiate there or not? I remember it being kind of elevated when I flew in there. If it's an airport that typically radiates but there's been a lot of recent development around it (ala IAD-Dulles), then you'd drastically lessen the chances of matching low temps again even if a similar airmass happened.

Looked a bit west at 60h with the main band. If other guidance aligns with the NAM/Euro/RGEM, then I'd toss the GFS for now. We'll see what the others say soon.

Forgot about 1985....but yeah, -16 is still brutal cold for them. So yeah, I wouldn't count on it happening again any time soon. Prob need a perfect delivery and it's still possible. BOS and ORH had their coldest readings since 1957 back during the cold shot in Feb 2016....it was a brief but intense cold shot on a perfect trajectory for SNE, so that's how it's done.

GFS just grazes the Cape.

I think that temp is still like a top 3 all time low for them. So yea....not happening.

GFS coming in west too....but it's been the furthest east model, so not a surprise. We'll see if it actually gets far enough west for a decent impact this run.

They set their all time record low that day....so unlikely.

Yeah it has the look where there could be some ugly light snow or snizzle almost prior to the main band getting onshore....it's all saturated up through like 850mb, but then dry as a bone at H7 before that band makes it. With 900-925 so cold, I'd imagine that will help try and form ice crystals in the low levels. No shortage of salt nuclei in this setup. But I think the steadier stuff would need upper level support...need that H5 low to really expand northwest as shown on those 12z runs.

Both NAM and Reggie have a 2nd wave of precip for early Monday. It's like a 6-8 hour lull and then another pulse....though Reggie kind of never really shuts it off...more like lightens it up and then tries to pulse it up again for 6 hours. This is where the bust aspect could come in we're fishing for a positive bust....we end up with like 18+ hours of steady snows if it never really shuts off...and if not all of that snow is light snow, then you will see some good amounts. There's plenty of reason though to keep all the caution flags up though. Really tedious setup.

Reggie is not as intense as NAM though....band kind of weakens pretty quickly once it's onshore.

Yeah came west from 06z too.

Here's the actual song being played in Feb '94...it's right at the beginning

NAM has round 2

It's really cold at like 925-950....like -7C, so in any steady precip, it's prob gonna wetbulb quickly down below 32F.

Gets Boston and metro west too.

Wow...scooter crushed on 12z NAM

NAM is a bit west of 06z. That's a pretty intense band trying to kiss the south shore.

Yeah I'm not confident anyone gets a lot (as in more than 3 or 4 inches), but there is a small probability this busts in the positive direction if we sit a CCB/deform over some areas for 12-18 hours.....always tough when there is kind of a mature ULL, but there are areas of good fronto that try to get going, so we'll see.

1/19-20 is looking a bit better for NNE imho....there weren't as many solutions ripping the snow line well into Quebec....many kept NNE mostly snow, so we'll see if that trend continues today.