ORH_wxman

Early Feb 2017 pattern.

Shoulder linger well into evening for our area. Just looking upstream radar plus 18z NAM, it seems like at least until 8-9pm? Might be even a little later. We won't have it ripping moderate like som eof those brief bands earlier today, but it should accumulate a lot more efficiently even if its light as temps drop below freezing and eventually into upper 20s.

Snuck up to 33F during this little lull and all the snow melted off the sidewalk....lol. Looks like next batch is coming in though and temp is dropping again as sun goes down. Should be able to accumulate pretty efficiently from here on out.

That northeast corner of ORH county seemed to do really well with the flip back to snow last night....down on winter hill in northern ORH city, there was just a brief flip at the end, so it was like 10 miles was the difference between a coating and 4"+ from last night.

Winter hill

Consistent NW to SE feed on the IVT stuff....hopefully we can keep it going into evening when accumulations would become more efficient.

I'm still liking that post-1/25 pattern into early February....skunked or not skunked to date, it's hard to say it looks like crap. Maybe it will trend worse, but there's going to be chances there and there's an awful lot of arctic cold around too which has been absent for over a month.

He's about 12 miles north of ORH on east slope. PRetty close to where I drew the X

Man, if we can get that shortwave to track a little further east for 1/25 we'd have a miller B type storm....as it is, it''s tracking so far west but decent confluence does give front end snow. Maybe we can trend it a bit east like 1/23 has been doing.

Ok yeah...they will prob do ok....most people south of there are prob cooked.

Don’t do it

Ripping right now in this band

Hopefully you can rip for a bit. Looks decent just NW and going toward you

Prob about a half inch. Looks nice though. Radar continues to fill in out west so hopefully we can get some heavier bursts

Seems like 128 or just outside is roughly the dividing line for 32F or so.

Really good snow growth in this band right now.....temps continue to hover just below freezing so it's sticking easily.

Yeah it's weird....12z NAM/RGEM both linger this well into late evening. HRRR kind of shuts it off late afternoon.

Surprised at temps creeping below freezing right now. 31.6F...so even this light stuff is now having no problem sticking.

Things starting to coat up nicely

Maybe a C-1"? Most of it stays north of you but these aren't always the easiest to forecast.

Snow has picked up a bit as this band starts to move in....much better flakes now. Nice steady snow.

My current view on the next two threats: Jan 23rd: Looks like garbage for SNE but CNE/NNE should get a nice swath of warning snows from that one...slight chance SNE can maybe get something as it exits...the best energy seems to trail the sfc low a bit, so maybe a changeover. But for now, I'd expect a shutout here. Jan 25th: Looks like SNE could actually get something from thus one...most guidance agrees on the northern stream moving ahead of the southern stream which creates an area of confluence prior to the storm arriving. The airmass is still pretty meh, but it's probably cold enough for a decent hit on the front end...esp northern half of SNE. Still some time on this one...it could trend either way. Trending to shit wouldn't surprise me, but given the confluence, there is some room to trend this even a little better almost into pseudo-Miller B. That would be the ideal scenario....even if low probability.

Mar 7-8 was the paster though....i had 12" of mashed potatoes and lost power for 3 days in that one. Mar 13th was the fluff bomb.

Yeah 1/25 gets up there...1/23 might miss them though...or at least the really heavy stuff. Tough call...something more like the GFS hits N ME on 1/23 but NAM and Euro are kind of scrapers for them.

12z NAM is pretty nice for pike region up into S NH. Prob 2-3" in spots....eastern areas may actually do pretty well this evening....snow lasts until like 06z and any stuff later in the day and evening may be falling with temps nudging below freezing so the accumulations will come easier.