ORH_wxman

I doubt it trends much…it’s been amazingly consistent for days (I know Tip posted something similar). But small nuances could help…if we can get just a little more vort energy on the eastern flank of that trough, it would really help that WCB be more intense and perhaps also nudge the secondary reflection a little deeper which would lock in lower level cold more efficiently. We’re not talking drastic changes but it could be like the difference between 2” and then rain with temps getting to 40-43F in a place like Bedford versus 5” and temps never really getting above 35F.

Steadier snow has resumed. Not as heavy as that first band though

There’s almost two different WAA precip batches…the first initial one is pretty good from like N NJ to S CT and it’s weakening as it lifts north from there and then another reorganizes about 8 hours later but by that point, we’re starting to warm aloft so that batch is mainly for N of MA/NH border. We got caught in between….hopefully that doesn’t happen but some models have shown that. 18z NAM actually got us decent with the initial band. Didn’t weaken it as fast.

Jet mechanics FTW. I think Chris posted it earlier and I was discussing yesterday, but we have a pretty impressive left exit region with this CCB so that got the job done. Sometimes we’ll have a ULL/energy swinging underneath us but not much jet assist, and it can just be light to moderate stuff, but we were able to get that extra enhanced lift to get heavy bands.

Yep most of that fell in 90 minutes.

Man snow. I just went out and shoveled really quick during this lull and the piles look like I got double my 3.5 so far

In a little sucker hole now but those last 90 min were intense. Looks like another good band about to rotate in that’s hammering ORH to windham county…someone on the north shore must be doing well because that band has been parked there

Over 3” now

Still poundtown up on north shore....good band over ORH now too

North shore is really pounding now per radar

Utterly pounding in this band....I must be approaching 2" already eyeballing outside.

Incoming for you on another band

Metrowest band

Really going to town now

Rippage

Metrowest is going to absolutely rip for a bit....these are impressive bands setting up

Clock is ticking there....hopefully that stuff rotating SE near NY border keeps backfilling for a bit, but otherwise it's prob another hour or two of the steady stuff.

Some impressive bands starting to set up....maybe we can actually exceed 2" in this??....that would exceed expectations. We'll see, but I like the radar right now.

Steady snow...temp has dipped to 32F...shouldnt have much trouble accumulating.

Over-stating attribution is just as anti-science as implying there is none.

What is the physical mechanism though? Models aren't taking a hypothetical mid-20th century climate and trying to apply it to 2023.....they are ingesting real time data. A smaller PV might make the model performance a bit worse because models perform worse in lower gradient environments....however, the model verification score improvement is at odds with that theory becoming dominant. Models are improving faster than any sort of "shrinking PV" can offset that performance.

Snow line is basically over BOS now on CC-dual pol. We're not snowing here though, but echoes are really light right now...we'll see if its flakes when this batch knocking on the door comes through.

No it does not mean that.....just the average temp of the globe was 1C cooler. The arctic is where the most warming has happened, so it might be like 4C cooler there....while in many tropical areas it hasn't warmed at all. In our case in the state of MA, if we take the average DJFM temps from the middle 20th century and do a least squares regression, we've warmed at about 0.18C per decade which equates to about 1.3C of warming where we are. So it happens that our area is pretty close to that 1C of warming as it turns out but that won't be true everywhere.

Flipped over to snow in ORH now.

Looks like snow line is just getting near Tolland up through ORH and northeast along 495