ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Trailing shortwave is more impressive than the front runner. If it ever sped up slightly, it would be a pretty good event. Seems to be a lot of issues identifying how much integrity each vortmax is going to have.
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Let’s be honest, nobody is going to be super confident in plowable snowfall until we’re inside of 3 days with good model agreement. A couple cycles ago, the S and SE peeps were all worried about this being a hugger…now the worry is the opposite. Nobody really knows whether this is the “one” to be worried about or if it will bump back NW on the next cycle. But that’s life 5 days out on a storm threat.
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18z EPS trended weaker and S but it does still have a large number of those NW lows clustered together.
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They’ve been trending colder overall. But it’s not been a straight line trend. A bit noisy but it’s def a colder look than 48-60 hours ago. But it could easily trend warmer like the OP Euro today too. It’s 8 days away so we’re not gonna know a whole lot more until probably later this week.
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Well to be fair, 12z showed 12+ for a chunk of SNE so 18z showing the same thing would just be continuity. If it showed 18+, my guess is most people would just say 18z is on the sauce at happy hour. We’ll know more at 00z.
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That’s an ugly solution but there is a way to still get a decent storm if that trailer catches up like the 18z icon. Or we keep the initial s/w stronger.
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I’m not convinced SNE is a mostly rain event yet on 1/10. Esp for interior. You gotta remember that thing is still 8 days out.
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Wonder if some of those slower EPS members are doing the same thing.
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Trailer s/w caught it and prolongs the event into like a 30-36 hour deal. That would be a new twist.
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That does show that 1/10 even on the EPS is still a legit threat for NNE. OP run was the warmest outlier. Hopefully we can trend that even colder further south. There’s some competing forces though so it’s certainly possible the warmer idea wins out too.
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It’s cold at 925. Barring a true hugger track, prob gonna need to be within 5-10 miles of water to be above freezing and areas a little further north like BOS might stay below anyway.
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Agreed. Just need it to verify now. Lol. GEFS was a little less ideal but still decent….hopefully EPS are more correct.
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Yeah EPS still has that Nw cluster
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Agreed. North of 00z EPS but a touch south of 06z EPS. Waiting on individual clusters to come out.
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Good chance for lingering light snow since the shortwave is stretched/sheared out at the end…sort of forces an IVT to hang back and keep light snow falling. Don’t think additional accums would be big but like an inch or two from late afternoon through evening wouldn’t be surprising in that type of setup.
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Hopefully it’s out to lunch vs other guidance. That’s a huge difference. Some guidance gives warning criteria snow for just about all of CNE/NNE (and even close in parts of SNE) while Euro is not much at all and prolonged mild rains.
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This current 1/7 storm def is more of an El Niño flavor…I was more referring to the pattern that follows. Very La Niña as we start building SE ridge and western trough. Hopefully blocking is good enough to keep us on the cold side most of the time. That said, Euro doesn’t want to cooperate much with the 1:10 threat. Not nearly as CADish and cold as the other 12z guidance. We’ll see what EPS says in a bit.
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Track wasn’t too dissimilar (maybe a hair S) but it was not a dynamic as the Ukie solution. Still a solid storm but a Euro type solution is more of like a 5-10” storm for SNE (maybe a higher lolli) rather than 8-12/10-15 or something like that which some of the other guidance has.
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Shortwave doesn’t really have much integrity to it like other guidance which I why the whole thing is weaker than other guidance.
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North of 00z but still on the southern envelope of 12z guidance.
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Not sure I’ve ever seen an arctic high “fill with tropical maritime air”….interesting physics and thermodynamics there. Might be a new discovery.
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Confluence is good…just as long as you aren’t so close to it that it screws you. Confluence is what helps create awesome fronto bands.
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Versus your old ‘hood in Woodstock? Yeah it will taint quicker near Ginxy but not by much. He’s in a decent spot far enough off the water for major concerns. I’d think that area would need a true hugger track (like basically over the forks of LI) to have major ptype issues. Im assuming you’re near Moosup/Sterling? I’m on mobile so I can’t see locations in posts right now.
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Actually a really nice look for Boston on Ukie. Crush job over eastern areas. Most of SNE does well but nice enhancement east.
