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Weather Will

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Everything posted by Weather Will

  1. Unfortunately, WB 18Z EPS looks more like the GFS than the GEFS at Day 6.
  2. If there is one lesson to learn from this winter, the OPs are crap outside 4-5 days. All of them!!! And it works both ways.
  3. Really a schizophrenic group and I say that in the nicest way possible….
  4. Full run GEFS made progress over last day’s runs….hopefully trends continue today (WB).
  5. OZ EPS compared to yesterday…nice 24 hour trends…(WB)
  6. 12Z Euro still figuring out where the big storm will be….source WB.
  7. Have to just look at trends outside Day 5 on globals. Nice trends over last day, source 0Z Euro WB
  8. OZ GEFS at Day 10. Source WB, nice trend over the last day, hope it continues!
  9. Th good news is that we have a chance. The teleconnections, MJO, and stratwarm are looking good…but we need some luck. I am being a realist. Give us a specific threat inside 10 days that is being depicted by the 3 global models and then I will jump full in. Otherwise, in the spirit of Lent, call me the Doubting Thomas.
  10. 7 day height means. If we are not tracking something by the end of next work week, our Hail Mary play is in trouble.
  11. 10 day snow means ending 18th. We still have a ways to go on GEFS. WB 0Z EPS, 0Z GEPS, and 6Z GEFS.
  12. My no expert take is that the beginning of our window has shifted from the 9th to the 11-12th timeframe. it would be nice to see that window hold over the next few days and not slip too much further. We are running out of time…
  13. WB 6Z GEFS has trended in the right direction for next weekend compared to yesterday at 6Z.
  14. Bottom line is we don’t have a specific threat yet within 10 days.
  15. Good night….Oz compared to 12Z. At least the EURO caved more quickly this time.
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