Now let’s see if we can increase this over the next week...I will be frustrated if there is not a threat showing up inside 10 days on the deterministic models by next weekend. Until then, will be patient....
None of us will do it, but to keep your sanity, one should just not look at the models for five days and then check back in....the head fakes from run to run are crazy...
6Z GEFS thru Day 8....not great but best look in weeks at this range. Will be interesting to see if we finally trend the right direction inside 8 days.
Expectations should be low through the next two weeks...ensembles remain a dud. Forget about AO, NAO, PNA, WPO, EPO, and strat.warm. Say a Hail Mary and hope ET comes home. We need divine intervention.
To keep my expectations in check, I refuse to get head faked by the deterministic models outside 5 days anymore. If their respective ensembles show some support, I keep an eye on it....