Weather Will

WB 0z EPS Jan 7 upper air: appears there continues to be opportunity during the 7-10 period as previously discussed. I am wondering if the trough east of Hawaii (Assuming that is correct) should translate into more ridging in Alaska than shown...at least there is now something to watch!

WB 6Z GEFS snow mean. 20 percent of the individual members have big hits.

WB EPS Control Day 11...Looks like the week after New Years there is still some hope.

My recollection is that most of the long range forecasts were calling for a warmer December. I was happy to get my two inches in the first three weeks of the month which turned out close to average. What will be interesting is whether we see any sustained cold in January through March which would obviously give us snow hopes during peak climo. WatchIng for any sustained troughing east of Hawaii and for ridging over Alaska. I an also following the MJO. It takes some luck to get snowstorms but we need the cold air first.

Crumbs from the Snow Clown Maps EPS Day 9 12Z WB. (There are actually several members signaling some storminess around January 7-10.) At least it is something for me to check out on the next run in 12 hours...

GEFS mean on the 6th....

Looks like the GFS 18z on the 25th wants to give us some overrunning on the 3rd and a monster Coastal storm to graze us on the 6th. Interesting to see if there will be any GEFS support for that..Merry Christmas everyone!

WeatherBell (Both D'Aleo and JB) indicate that their analog years have it warm around the holiday season. Indicate MJO also was in the warm phases during this time. Latest Pioneer long range and the CPC run is cold for January. I guess we will know in another month if they were right. The theme this year is enjoy the good holiday travel and don't start to panic until about the first week of January if the pattern still looks boring...

General observation looking at the 12 z suite is that we will have temps 5-15 degrees above from Sunday-to about NY eve day depending on the timing of an arctic cold front. As some have recently noted the concern that The warmth will scour out the snow pack and cold throughout Canada during this period seems to be lessening. Now back to Christmas preparations....

WB EPS 0z 12.20 Day 15

Most winters have a mild period. In December to date, looking at the stats at DCA through yesterday, we have averaged about .6 of a degree above normal. So the first three weeks of the month will average near normal taking into account the current cold snap. Yes, no one is talking about it because it does not fit the torch forecast since before Thanksgiving but it is cold outside right now. We are heading into a milder pattern for a period....shocker! It happens every winter.

Latest Christmas temps. 0z EURO. Again, enjoy the good travel weather with family and friends.

Sure. Looks like mid 40s for Christmas at this time. View it as perfect weather to see family and friends.

I may misinterpret model runs but not intentionally. Christmas Day a touch milder on the GFS, but closer to 40 than 60.

I just looked at the latest 10 day EURO. Not white, but not a torch either. Highs on Christmas in the upper 30s this run, not 60.

Silver Spring. Just wet. Maybe a little on top of cars inside DC Beltway. Good day everyone.

Kensington streets just wet. Light dusting on grass as i continue trip to work in DC.

About an inch or 1.5 on everything in Brunswick neighborhood and 31. Roads a little slushy on 17 but no problems. On commuter train to DC. Interesting to see where the snow starts and the ice/rain begins.

Good luck everyone. Up at 430 to commute to work or telework depending on what happens overnight.

3kWB. 18z at 12z tomorrow Seems a tick south with the snow.

WB 3K NAM Sleet and Snow 18z at 18z Monday

2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...Includes NW MC, NW BC, NW HC, W LD Points North and West * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Maryland as well as the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Monday. Snow will overspread the area between midnight and 3 AM overnight and it will change to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain Monday morning. Precipitation will eventually change to rain for most areas Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute with snow covered and slippery roads and as well as slippery sidewalks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

WB 18z 12K NAM at 12Z. Tick south

WB EURO 12z hold serve for NW areas.