Weather Will

Been gardening all day….check back in midweek…models have been horrible outside a few days anyway…

WB 6Z GEFS does give some support to the deterministic model.

Sorry about that….

WB 6Z GFS still shows potential for late March early. April period. TGIF!!! Of note, is that at various runs Both EUROPEAN and GFS have been showing this potential.

Cape will be mad at me but WB 12Z EURO control has a DC bullseye..

WB 12Z ensembles….trough in the east next weekend, will it produce a big rain/snow storm? TBD.

WB 0Z GFS along without the digital snow map…two waves.

Do ensembles count?

WB 12Z ensembles, weak signal for the last weekend of March.

What is causing this? Never seen it before… Low Water Advisory URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 952 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 ANZ630>632-635>638-650-652-142200- /O.CON.KAKQ.LO.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-220314T2300Z/ Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA- Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA- Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA- Rappahannock River from Urbanna to Windmill Point-York River- James River from Jamestown to the James River Bridge- James River from James River Bridge to Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- Coastal waters from Fenwick Island DE to Chincoteague VA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Chincoteague to Parramore Island VA out 20 nm- 952 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 ...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Abnormally low water levels. * WHERE...Rappahannock River from Urbanna to Windmill Point, York River and James River from Jamestown to the James River Bridge. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Below normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due to below normal water levels.

The point of the articles below is that it can still snow into April, not that it will. Pattern last week of March will have to be monitored. Source: Washington Post From the start of snow records in the late 1880s, fairly regular April snow events continued until 1924. During that period, 2 storms were particularly noteworthy: (1) the April 3, 1915 Easter weekend storm, which left 3.5 inches in D.C., but 15-20 inches in a swath from Philadelphia to Dover, DE; and (2) the April Fool’s Storm of April 1, 1924, which dumped 5-6 inches of snow on the Nation’s Capital and 9 inches in Baltimore. The latter was D.C.’s greatest official April snowstorm and appeared to be the culmination of regular April snow events in Washington. Since then, there’s been only about one per decade. Also of note: On March 29, 1942 11.5 inches was measured at Reagan National. The storm produced over 2 feet of snow in parts of Maryland and northwestern Virginia. That snowstorm also ranks as Baltimore’s seventh-largest storm on record; 22 inches was measured.

Couple of big hits on the ensembles during this time frame. At the very least, there looks like there will be a true Break from Spring the last weekend of March.

If it were not late March.. 12Z ensembles CMC and EPS,

Accumulations over in Brunswick, about 3 inches I would guess. Fun little mini blizzard!!!

Very gusty winds, heavy snow, blowing snow looks like the heaviest band of this storm moving through now. Spot on forecast by NWS.

31 in Brunswick; heavy wind, blowing snow. Side streets starting to cave. Looks like mid January…Love it!!!!

32 in Brunswick. Sidewalks/ driveway starting to whiten.

38/ mulch/roof whitening. Transition to snow was ahead of schedule.

39 snow/sleet mix Brunswick

39/ Sleet Brunswick

41; light rain Brunswick

Rain; 45.

A Winter Storm Warning indicates that heavy snow of at least 6 inches in 12 hours, or at least 8 inches in 24 hours, is expected. It can also be issued if sleet accumulation will be at least half an inch. A Blizzard Warning indicates that blizzard conditions (low visibility of less than 1/4 mile due to falling and/or blowing snow, and winds at least 35 mph) are expected for at least 3 hours. Source NWS

Frederick MD-Carroll-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- 319 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Northwest winds will gust around 45 to 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north-central Maryland as well as western Loudoun County in Virginia and northern Fauquier County in Virginia. * WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon. Rain will change to snow between 7 AM and 9 AM this morning. A band of moderate to heavy snow is most likely through late this morning before tapering off to a lighter snow early this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility may be reduced to below one- quarter mile at times. Brief near blizzard conditions are possible. Snowfall rates around one to two inches per hour are expected this morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

Temps take longer to fall below freezing in immediate suburbs