Weather Will

Subtract big time in areas that show sleet and freezing rain. WB GFS

The latest snow map does not line up with their watches and warnings, so i think there was just a glitch...the snow map is not changed from last night.

GM, I see the NAM is longer calling for 50 inches along the MD/Pa line. All joking aside, to clarify my email last night about the NAMs performance and subsequent NWS remarks which appear to indicate that my point was misconstrued after I signed off. I am a strong advocate of fully funding the dedicated and hard working federal employees at NWS. Especially with the weather more volatile then ever, it is critical that they have adequate resources to meet their mission to protect the public. As a manager in the federal government at another Agency, I can state without question that adequate funding is critical to providing the best possible service to the taxpayers of this country.

Yes. The NAM should be replaced before 2024.

We all need to write Uccellini and get them to speed up the replacement of the NAM.... let’s see, it overstates QPF, it’s too warm, it”s too cold and clueless outside 2 hours. We should not pay the bill for the electricity to run this model!!! But you got to love the 50 inches!!!

WB 3k NAM, actually if this verifies a lot of people will be happy and roofs will be collapsing in N. MD

10pm heading back SE 925/850/surface....please someone explain why it does not snow when all thes levels are below freezing west of 95? What don’t I understand?

7pm 925/850

4pm

WB 1pm Wed NAM tick colder

If the low does go due north up the Bay that is too close for comfort. 20- 30 miles east would make a big difference. May be an hour by hour outcast Late Wed. Afternoon/evening. We are only 48 hours out, but we are still 48 hours out....another 30 miles west track no one will be happy east of the Blue Ridge or in Northern MD. 2020 has proven anything is possible.

WB 18Z EURO. Held steady in my nonexpert opinion. Critical time period is 7-10 pm Wed. How far North does the rain/snow line get???

WB 12z Euro close up

It is impossible to know if you are getting 3, 6, 9 hours etc of mix v snow 48 hours out. I am ecstatic that the DC NW crowd is in the game to get anything before Christmas. Most years we do not.

Can someone explain why the temps look below freezing at all levels but the surface maps depict freezing rain/ sleet?

One of the experts a couple of days ago said the algorithms will have trouble distinguishing between mix/ snow when there is intense precipitation and marginal temps. WB NAM may have that issue.

WB 12Z NAM 7pm Wed. Also cooler compared to 6Z. And falls SE of DC by 10 pm

WB 12Z NAM 925 MB slightly cooler at 1pm Wed. Compared to 6Z

6Z GEFS mean low locations does not support NAM.

WB 6Z GFS surface temps upper 30s inside Beltway 8pm

WB 6Z GFS 925 7pm, 10 pm

WB 6z GFS snow map did tick NW around DC due to mixing/rain 7pm-10pm

WB 6Z GFS, 925 did tick NW at Wed 7pm

Busy work week before the holidays..GN... NAM is NAM. Hope GFS holds..

WB 0z NAM snow totals