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Weather Will

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Everything posted by Weather Will

  1. OPM has a new policy. Federal employees no longer get snow days or weather and safety leave as it is now called. We must either take personal leave or telework.
  2. MARC Brunswick line canceled. Penn and Camden on holiday schedule. Guess the state of MD thinks it will be pretty bad tomorrow
  3. Surface temps transition above freeze no between 18z and 6 z everywhere. I am not skilled enough to say whether there is much frozen during this time frame except in Nortgern MD
  4. Lot of rain until 18z Th. Looks like 1.5 inches total for storm. About a third frozen.
  5. Euro bring in light snow around 12z. Stays snow through 18z based on 850s. Loudoun, Southern Frederick through Baltimore 6 inches using clown maps. DC 4.
  6. JB in his premium video on Weather Bell admits the next two weeks look like a disaster and he was wrong......no crescendo of cold in sight. Interesting part about it is that no one can explain why. If the MJO has been the driver this winter, perhaps the models will respond in a week or so to the move into Phase 8 and perhaps 1......
  7. Don't kill the messengers...enjoy reading the expertise and experiencing the weather passion of this forum. Sometimes as has been stated before, a little luck is needed. But we should not put out an "It's OVER, GROVER WATCH" based on one set of overnight runs.
  8. If you just look at the EPS mean through day 8 (midweek storm) looks like the mean is still increasing. Also, about 60% of the members are showing at least a moderate event (3 or more inches) in my quick count. (Disclaimer---I am still learning to interpret the ensembles; but it appears that the EPS is showing a much stronger signal for middle of next week than the weekend threat.)
  9. I am gettting off the train at Brunswick fron DC in 10 minutes....anyone tell me if it is icy there?
  10. As a federal employee myself, not NWS, I would say constructive criticism is something anyone should gladly accept, but crap about pay checks etc. is unwarranted. Also, recognize that most federal employees are doing their best to serve the public, but we are human and can make mistakes. I make at least one every day....
  11. Weather Advisory for light glaze of ice expanded toward Most areas just Nortg and West of ‘95 at 10pm. Safe travels this evening
  12. 31; everything from streets and sidewalks a coating of white....beautiful!
  13. EPS looks very solid as well next 13 days. Tight gradient of 6 inches DC proper with over a foot for the southern part of the northern Md counties. Several individual members have widespread foot across the DMV I’ve the next 2 weeks. Not just a few individual members skewing the mean.
  14. Looks like the model is showing reinforcing cold air draining in Monday evening as discussed by Sterling NWS in their late afternoon discussion. If that verifies we are talking surface temps near freezing through Tuesday am and some potentially serious ice/ snow for both Monday rush hours and Tuesday am.
  15. 850s look about 30-50 miles south at :9 hours. Good trends as we close in...
  16. Amazing in 2018, only God know how much ?!$&@ will be on the ground by Tuesday. Can only laugh harder looking at the long range thread...But I still love guessing!!!!
  17. Looks like the Weather Service is forecasting a coastal solution....
  18. I agree. If the transfer occurs earlier and if the storm tracks more ENE, it’s big....again something to track. Reality is timing is everything. We can track every index, analog, etc....sometimes you just need a little luck. Be at the right place, at the right time.
  19. Something to track in February, better than last year!!!
  20. Looks like .5 to .75 for the event. Temps a close call in DC, but definitely in the game from about 7 days out and an operational perspective. EURO OP can be a tease this far out but makes it 3 runs in a row showing a moderate wintry event for the 12-13th.
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