Weather Will

Looks like the Weather Service is forecasting a coastal solution....

I agree. If the transfer occurs earlier and if the storm tracks more ENE, it’s big....again something to track. Reality is timing is everything. We can track every index, analog, etc....sometimes you just need a little luck. Be at the right place, at the right time.

Something to track in February, better than last year!!!

Looks like .5 to .75 for the event. Temps a close call in DC, but definitely in the game from about 7 days out and an operational perspective. EURO OP can be a tease this far out but makes it 3 runs in a row showing a moderate wintry event for the 12-13th.

Heavy winds and snow squalls going through Brunswick. (reports from family at home)......will see if anything makes it to DC in an hour or so.

Snow train ride home. Left DC at 330. Liquid rain;little sleet. By the time I got to Silver Spring it was all snow. Now to Point of Rocks 2-3 inches everywhere....will have to clean my car off at Brunswick....best train ride home in my 20 plus years of commuting!

To keep things in perspective: If you look at the top DC winter storms: Eight from late January into mid February (1899, 1922, 1966, 1999 (ice), 2000, 2010, 2011, 2016), Three have fallen on President's Day (1979, 1983, 2003); and one in March. I don't give up until March 14 (Superstorm'93).

Well, pleasantly surprised....snow did not amount to anything after sunrise until the last half hour. Side roads and driveway covered again! About .25 inch and 30 degrees.

Agree completely. Ending in SW. for example, moving NE of ChArlottsville. Al

About 6 inches here and I have shoveled. About over here. Looking at the radar I will be pleasantly surprised if it has not stopped snowing west of 95 by noon.

33/still flurries but every flake sticking to deck

34/flurries

Thanks.

Bob, Do you or any anyone else know if there have ever been any studies that show that one perturbed member of GEFS has been more reliable than another? Or am I not understanding how the ensembles work?

First post. I enjoy reading, but believe I have seen everyone get too emotional from time to time. As a native Marylander for 51 years, I would tell everyone to appreciate the snow we do get....we have gone through too many winters when there is nothing to track. From my hobbyist eye, at least we are in the game over the next month or so. (Referencing EURO weeklies, the AO, NAO, EPO, etc. for anyone wondering where I am coming from) so enjoy the ride. I plan to really enjoy my 2-4 inches tomorrow (yes, I know wrong thread.) Will make about 9 for Brunswick so far this year. PEACE.