NWS Afternoon Discussion on Tuesday:
Moving into Tuesday, the trough initially located over the center of
the country is expected to amplify and consolidate as a shortwave
disturbance descends down the backside of the trough. Exactly how
this shortwave interacts with the parent trough will have a large
impact on our forecast locally. Given the potential for a complex
interaction between these two features, there is a fair amount of
uncertainty surrounding the forecast later Tuesday into Tuesday
Night. Model consensus currently is that a weak area of low pressure
will form over the Tennessee Valley, then track northeast into the
Ohio Valley before ultimately transferring energy off the coast
Tuesday Night. Some showers will be possible in the zone of low-
level warm advection Tuesday into Tuesday Night. However, the mid-
upper level trough looks as though it will be quite progressive, so
any coastal storm that forms should be well off to our northeast by
the time it matures. As a result, precipitation totals aren`t
expected to be that impressive, with nearly all ensemble members in
both the EPS and GEFS showing under a half inch through the duration
of the event. Some cooler air may try to work in on the backside of
the system, so can`t rule out the system ending as a little snow
north and west of the I-95 corridor. However, that appears to be an
unlikely scenario at the moment. Conditions will dry out by Tuesday
Night, but upslope snow showers may persist along the Allegheny
Front in strong WNW flow.