Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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Stupid Question: when there is mixed precip do you look at all three frozen precip maps—-snow, sleet, and freezing rain to figure out totals or how is it calculated?
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WB 18z Sat
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12z Sat WB is south
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EPS has about 40 percent of its Members with a hit ( 2 or more inches at DCA).
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WB GEFS “snow” (it won’t be all snow) mean at 6Z for MLK...lock it in! About 70 percent of GEFS members give us a nice frozen event.
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GEFS WB MEAN AT 6Z is cooler compared to 0z as well. CAD shows up nicely.
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Wild swings continue on GFS for weekend. Colder temps for Saturday on this run. First temp map 6z, second temp map 0z. Hope it is a start of a trend in the right direction. All maps WB.
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EURO OZ WB fir MLK weekend. Improved this run. Would also note that 19 of the 50 EPS Members have nice hits for the weekend.
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Out in fantasy land but we do like winter storms on weekends. GFS WB 6z Sat 25th.
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WB 6z GFF looks a little better if you like iciness to start your weekend.
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EPS Oz probability of a an inch or more through the 27th. Point here is literally don’t have a meltdown if next weekend does not work out....at least not yet.
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EPS 0z mean through MLK weekend.
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Great weekend storm for Wisconsin and Michigan.
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I was skeptical but EURO is caving to GFS. I think, and I am entitled to an opinion, that the EURO has been catching up with the other models with regards to the CAD for next weekend.
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While by 18z it is rain verbatim on EURO, the shift of the frozen line is south at the MD PA line. Nice step in right direction compared to 0z.
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EURO 12z is south this run....light snow breaking out Saturday am.
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I have an idea....maybe we could start an American Weather forum Mid Atlantic winter storm index for 0-5 days out and 6 days or more out. It would make it easier to know what our more experienced forum members think of the pattern potential. “0” for torch and “10” for something that would make even Ji happy. For example, currently it would be “0” for the next 5 days.
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6z GFS CAD not as deep as Oz for next weekend. The low tracks for EURO and GFS look similar so it will be interesting to see which model has a better handle on temperature profiles for next weekend.
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While Oz EURO is still Dr. No for next weekend, EPS shows slight improvement for next weekend. Hope it caves to GFS/ GEFS.
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I would love to see a winter storm on MLK weekend, but factors working against us include a week of mild weather making ground temperatures suspect to support an ice event. Also, neither 12z EURO or EPS temps currently support a front end winter thump. However, there are below freezing temps not too far away, in south central and western PA. 8 days away Is too far away to write it off but I still think it is an uphill battle.
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I stand corrected. Although I thought EPS at 12z was not showing much until after the weekend. Will have to go look again.
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The force is strong...GFS says don’t give up on the MLK weekend storm yet.
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EPS does not seem impressed with next weekend, But snow mean increases with some big hits the week of January 20. Patience will be needed for another week. WB EPS 15 day mean.
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I am sure it will shock everyone that JB Is on board for the flip. I actually enjoyed his videos today where he discussed the similarities to 1978, the MJO moving to more favorable phases, and an interesting discussion about the recent deluge of rain in Israel like 1978.
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That is all I meant. Still looks like we flip to a colder stormier pattern Next weekend. That does not guarantee snow storms but puts us back in the game. There is strong consensus in the modeling that there are No threats before MLK weekend. Enjoy the Outdoors this weekend. Might turn back on the water and wash the car. That will guarantee bad weather next weekend!
