I hope something pans out by the 20th, but at least one fly in the ointment is the MJO. Unfortunately, the EURO keeps trending toward a more amplified wave into 4 and 5 like the GEFS.
As you get older, more than half the fun is the tracking, last year was horribly boring. At least this year beats last year in the number of storms and we are putting a significant dent in our drought.