Weather Will

HRRR is drier this run compared to 6Z. WB 12Z HRRR 4pm Sunday. I guess a new way to fail is to be dry slotted as the coastal transfer takes place.

9am still heavy snow DC with sleet knocking at door.

8am another hour of heavy snow DC

7am still a beat down DC WB 12Z HRRR

6am moderate/ heavy snow DC WB 12Z HRRR

WB 12Z HRRR snow breaking out 2am Sunday; 4,

12Z runs about to begin. Will Ji have the runs or will the fun times roll in?!!!!! WB 12Z HRRR

WB 6Z EURO

WB 6Z EURO AI

Note NWS saying travel will be nearly impossible.....

DC latest NWS SUNDAY EVENING... .A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to widespread significant snow beginning this evening, with the potential for ice Sunday especially south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold temperatures are expected tonight through the middle of next week with sub-zero wind chills likely at times. DCZ001-MDZ006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ051-053-054-502-506-526-527- 241830- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/ District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Culpeper-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 526 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 7 and 14 inches, with highest in the far northern and western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore. Ice accumulations between one and two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, and northern Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight, becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of Highway 50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A prolonged period of wind chills in the teens and single digits continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times.

Latest Winter Storm updates just issued from NWS. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 526 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... .A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to widespread significant snow beginning this evening, with the potential for ice Sunday especially south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold temperatures are expected tonight through the middle of next week with sub-zero wind chills likely at times. MDZ003>005-502-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-504-241830- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Central and Eastern Allegany- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Eastern Mineral- 526 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 10 and 16 inches, with highest amounts north and west of US-340. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch, mainly south and east of US-340. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight, becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected Sunday. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A prolonged period of very cold wind chills continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next week.

Really going to be a nowcast for tomorrow am. We will be watching the snow/sleet line in real time. Side note: 6Z 3K NAM forecast is 3 degrees too warm for me at 6 am this morning, so who knows about whether it is right for Sunday am.

Pressure map sane time frame comparing WB 3K NAM to HRRR; not much difference.

WB 3K NAM is warmer aloft than 6Z HRRR. For example, 11 am Sunday. We will see which model is wrong.

WB 3K NAM does not have the thump like HRRR. I think that is part of its problem or the reason it transitions to sleet faster

WB 6Z HRRR at 1 am Monday

WB 6Z HRRR at 4pm Sunday

WB 6Z HRRR at 1 pm Sunday; DC start to flip around 11 am; about an hour later than OZ run.

WB 6Z HRRR steadier snow by 6am Sunday.

WB 6Z HRRR: light snow breaking out about 2am Sunday.

6Z is running... hopefully it is consistent with the latest EURO!!!!

WB 0Z 3K NAM

Nowadays that means work from home or take leave.

WB 0Z HRRR is a glacier. Not sure what people expect from this storm, but it looks like a serious storm with prolonged cold in place. Totals added to my list a couple pages back.