Weather Will

WB 6Z GFS.....

At least Tuesday will not cut....and even if NW zones are fringed ratios will be high.

Tuesday is trending the wrong way on WB EPS

The 20th storm is a mess at this point for our latitude, but can definitely see a monster trough.

Until the Friday low clears out the track will bounce around but definitely a SE trend on EURO the last 24 hours and weaker.

Fringed...:(

WB OZ EURO

How about a picture from an historic time of snow covered roads?

Deep freeze Wed am on WB 0Z EURO. Back to bed...

WB 0Z EURO

It's warm and wet or cold and dry, it just wants to make me cry, will it ever snow again? Don't know but the definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again expecting different results, so track again and again I will, as long as I can afford the internet bill!!!!

Side note, colleague out of Chicago says the snow storm forecast is a bust in their NW burbs. NWS forecast was for 8-12 and they got a few inches with pavement just wet.

WB 0Z EPS looks better for next Tuesday compared to 0Z yesterday.

We know it is going to rain tomorrow and Saturday. Until these two storms clear the field I think it is very difficult trying to figure out next week. Sunday- Monday will be interesting to watch the model runs.

Trying to be positive. Point is that it looks like it will stay seasonal around the 21-25 or so and then turn sharply colder again as we enter February. I would love one big storm.

WB latest EURO weeklies look good for late Jan. Early Feb.

NWS statements: flooding and wind FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore, St. Marys and Washington, Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Clarke, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Northwest Prince William, Orange, Page, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren and Western Loudoun, and panhandle West Virginia, including the following areas, Berkeley, Jefferson and Morgan. * WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - A period of moderate to heavy rain is likely to overspread the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals of two to three inches expected with localized amounts up to four inches possible. - Please visit weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, northern and southern Maryland, The District of Columbia and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 3 PM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

WB 6Z NAM worst of the rain looks like it hits around 9pm east of mountains but windy almost all day Tuesday. Damaging winds i would think are most likely with that heavy rain band.

WB 18Z 3K NAM big rain and wind still on track..

Looks like we need to be worried more about suppression on the GEFS than a cutter for the 16th.

WB 18Z GEFS

Well the WB 18Z GEFS looks a lot better than the GFS

Being very practical about it to keep my hopes in check. The chance of snow the next 7 days is slim to none. Let's see what the models are showing for the week of the 14th by next weekend.

I hope something pans out by the 20th, but at least one fly in the ointment is the MJO. Unfortunately, the EURO keeps trending toward a more amplified wave into 4 and 5 like the GEFS.

WB 6Z EURO; sorry edited for just Tuesday.