Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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The ensemble snow probability maps inside 10 days are not impressive yet, but I will post them if they start to light up….
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WB 12Z EPS has PNA heading in the positive direction and getting to neutral by the 13th….hopefully that verifies.
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WB 0Z EPS for the 13th
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WB 18Z GFS…v. 0Z variability continues but this is why I get little sleep during tracking season….
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WB 12Z EPS is not the GFS toaster oven…
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WB 12Z GEFS….much better. I never said the GFS was correct, but we all know that the warmest and least snowy model usually is unfortunately…
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WB 12Z GFS does not look good compared to yesterday. Lot of volatility in Week of Dec 12.
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WB 12Z GFS looks much better than 6Z….I am thinking that is why it was so quiet in here earlier…
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I personally have to be reminded….I am not a patient individual….
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While we patiently wait, I thought this video from NBC 4 Meteorologist Ryan Miller may help to keep expectations in check with regards to December snow… When Will D.C. See Snow? Here's a Look at Winter Trends https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/when-will-d-c-see-snow-heres-a-look-at-winter-trends/3218470/
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Cold shot in the Dec 8-9 period could be the one to set us up for a wintry event. The weekend of the 9-12 period that Cape has referenced appears to be our first chance of accumulating snow east of the mountains. Too early to pinpoint a particular wave. Initially, I had been looking at Dec 5-6 period but it looks like that is too early.
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I am not saying cancel December but that patience will be needed….6Z WB EPS this week (which no one saw as cold and stormy) will verify and not be…
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WB 6Z GEFS. The probability maps say no strong signal for a storm the next 2 weeks. It is still too early to be analyzing every run…. The press of colder air is hopefully just delayed and not denied…but not cold enough the next 2 weeks.
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In his WB blog earlier last week, JB stated he has concerns for “severe cold” around mid month. He also said in one of his videos that he did not want to lose viewers by stating how the pattern will evolve in January….(the implication was torch in January.)
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WB 12Z GEFS teleconnections. Look pretty good to me. One thing about the PNA, though negative it is not at record low -4 standard deviation to overwhelm everything else like last December…
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WB 12Z Ensembles: first period to watch is the Dec. 5-6 period. Happy and peaceful Thanksgiving to all!
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Beautiful day to put up outdoor Christmas decorations….upper 50s and light winds.
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We both know that the model with the least cold and snow usually wins out around here, but there is cold air lurking in Canada this year so at least we are in the ball game….
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I would remind everyone that it was the EURO/EPS that had a coastal storm for this Friday that fizzled out.
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Happy to see the optimism. Be Thankful… I predict we will know if it will snow in December by January 1, 2023.
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WB EPS Control from 11/21.
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Probably not east of the mountains. My point is that the models are all over the place outside a few days. Hopefully it will be a December to remember!!!
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I love cold weather around Thanksgiving….excuse to eat more! Plus it can’t hurt to chill water temperatures for our hopes for December Nor’easter! Long range models are volatile for December, but not showing wall to wall torch… too much negativity in here. It is cold for any day of the winter today…sunny in mid 30s with teen windchills…come on…
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WB 12Z EPS v. 6Z EPS for Friday. Love the active pattern with cold air around…. So much better than last year…
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Well at least there is some cold air around as we head into December. Felt like it did not go below freezing until after the New Year last winter…with a little luck the pattern will give many of us some snow by the end of the year. Could not say that in mid November last year looking into December.
