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SnowDreamer

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Everything posted by SnowDreamer

  1. SnowDreamer
    Just need to hold this look for 28 more runs!
  2. SnowDreamer
    Weatherbell is a little pricey, so as a general rule, I don't start my typical monthly subscription until there's a decent shot at a solid storm. I just restarted my subscription for the first time since March '22. We're back!!!
  3. SnowDreamer
    Someone who knows more than me... What the heck is the GFS doing here? It looks like the ULL gets split into two pieces and then the piece from the midwest nearly stalls the piece trying to ride up the coast as they get close to phasing back together?
  4. SnowDreamer
    I was bored and thinking about how it's been a warm December IMBY. Linear regressions imply an increase of about .1F per year. The coefficient for both lines is significant at greater than 95% confidence level.
  5. SnowDreamer
    DCA gets the least snow within a 500 mile radius. Seems about right! These models really have gotten more accurate.
  6. SnowDreamer
    CC line has spread out and advanced pretty rapidly in the last hour
  7. SnowDreamer
    NAMs are much better than 12Z, especially for the western crew out in Loudoun/Shenandoah Valley.
  8. SnowDreamer
    3k NAM spreads the wealth well East of 95 on this run
  9. SnowDreamer
    12k NAM is a solid improvement. Verbatim jackpot along 81 vice West Virginia.
  10. SnowDreamer
    BWI: 13.5” DCA: 7.1” IAD: 10.8” RIC: 6.0” Tiebreaker SBY: 4.2”
  11. SnowDreamer
    HRRRRRRRRR’d
  12. SnowDreamer
    Love the dramatic reading here. This is what I came to see!!
  13. SnowDreamer
    I’m waiting for an EPIC NAM’ing at 00Z, then I’m going to feed my Ethernet chord to the dog before anything else comes out and wait for it to come true.
  14. SnowDreamer
    Still misses to the SE…
  15. SnowDreamer
    H5 looks a lot more like GFS @ hr 102 than 00Z did.
  16. SnowDreamer
    Hr 72… Energy north of ND looks a good tick souther on the 12Z Euro… may help it phase in?
  17. SnowDreamer
    I have felt the dark side pull me as well… Lots of us get jealous of snow sometimes, but actively hoping for others to get screwed takes a special kind of weenie.
  18. SnowDreamer
    I agree that it’s an IMBY sport, and I don’t think anyone has a real problem with people rooting that way. I don’t love the F-your-BY attitude that sometimes happens though. If it’s not actually better for your (not DDweather, just a hypothetical your) backyard, why root against someone else’s snow? Putting aside of course that rooting doesn’t help anyway.
  19. SnowDreamer
    It’s the classic statistical fallacy that the coin somehow “remembers” whether it was heads or tails on the last n flips.
  20. SnowDreamer
    00Z CMC h5 much improved vs 12z… actually quite the shift.
  21. SnowDreamer
    GFS SLP for Sunday is weaker and Souther. No bueno.
  22. SnowDreamer
    Fixed
  23. SnowDreamer
    Agree. Phase looks too late, but it’s something to track at least!
  24. SnowDreamer
    I call this piece: Three ships in the night medium: weenie tears on Cray supercomputer
  25. SnowDreamer
    The problem is the label… it’s NOT a “start time” map. It just isn’t. I *think* it’s a map of where it’s snowing when. Even then it’s a disaster.
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