SnowDreamer

RGEM is pretty similar overall, narrows the jackpot zone on this map

ICON is an improvement for all

ICON still running but definitely going to have a NW tick to totals. A bit more than the NAMs it looks like through hr19

62/58 here in ffx and making a drink before the ICON starts...

8” as the “low end confident number” in South DC and DCA? That’s ballsy!

Yeah, it does a bit, but here's the 00Z for comparison on the big progress.

A LOT better than 00Z but not there yet.

FWIW, 12ZGFS and 06ZEURO get DC up to ~65F today before the crash. So at least there's that.

It's conservative, but not an unfair play if you're willing to upgrade to warnings in 4 hours.

CMC takes another solid step NW, looks pretty close to GFS now with lower totals.

The most accurate map posted yet!

I love the RGEM as a weenie, but I think (based pretty much only on anecdotal evidence) it’s usually more bullish than warranted. Thoughts?

I agree, I’m not as optimistic about the 7-10” region but the rest looks exactly like mine. Hoping to lock in that look at 18Z

Suggests NW trend is probably not over. A good bit juicier as well!

Kuchera vs. 18Z

Precip shield takes another solid jog NW. I'll happily take the progress.

Those of you with a spiritual side, now would be the time.

18z euro will shift NW enough to get .5” into DC, and keep us all on the hook before it and all others fold to NAM by 06z tomorrow. (Reverse logic!)

A bit North-er and stronger low than 12Z

Also lethally slippery down here near Springfield. I had a tiny coating of sleet post-shovel which has turned into solid ice on my sidewalk.

That’s amazing! Running can be so therapeutic. I’m sorry for your loss. I used to run every evening when I was struggling with my own happiness, and I still make a point of putting in laps on hard days. Exercise is just great for the brain, but I also think it feels good to know you got something concrete done.

@The Ole BucketI just want you to know that you have my favorite username on the board by far.

I love that you clarified your diction by not contributing any new information whatsoever. Very helpful. In case it helps you, when I said area, I meant our geographic area of VA, MD, WV. If that's not what you meant, then I can't help you. If, on the other hand, you meant the geographic area like I did, then I'd hope you'd agree that a model's performance in our area is vastly more relevant than other areas where you might be able to point to relative success. I will direct you to the disco this morning which pointed out that although the NAM was close with the warm nose, it too underestimated it. Also, I'd like to point out that the NAMs busted in large part due to QPF overestimation, not because of the mix line. You can see that in the 00Z run which you previously called cherry-picked before you specifically lauded it.

Look up "sun dog"

Uhm... This is a geographically-based sub-forum. What matters to us is how well a model performs in our area. I'm not especially interested in whether or not the NAM nailed QPF in NYC. I'm not saying the NAM is bad. It's been REALLY good this year, but 3k and 12k both busted.