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SnowDreamer

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Everything posted by SnowDreamer

  1. Please be careful about posting total accumulation maps contaminated by other events not in this thread. It doesn't really affect VA/MD in this instance, but better safe than sorry.
  2. Looks quite similar to the HRDPS and RGEM, good agreement coming out of the northern neighbor suite tonight.
  3. I know 12" isn't crazy, but this threat was on life support not long ago and now suddenly the NAM just drops a foot on my house. I feel quite sufficiently NAM'd lol.
  4. What's the all-time record for NAM'ing? 18Z today has got to be up there. I mean holy crap! A foot straight up the 95 corridor.
  5. It's been off and on for weeks, but slow to come out even when on. Pivotal has had it pretty consistently but seems to have lost it as of 06z. Not sure where else to look at the moment.
  6. In general I find these maps to be pretty accurate. Do you often find yourself below local obs? If so, I'd suspect possible microclimate.
  7. Erm... I seem to have gotten at least another inch overnight. The snow gods are trolling me. Slight bust WAA, very little CCB, but I still make my 4-8? I’m both irritated and ecstatic.
  8. NOAA Just updated interpolated obs through 00Z... Looks like forecasts won't bust that badly for most. Got me in ~3" which is accurate. I was expecting 4-8".
  9. That EPS mean is a REALLY nice improvement over 12 hours ago.
  10. Flakes suddenly mixing in with freezing drizzle and sleet. First flakes I've seen all day!
  11. Thank you. Just thank you. We need more content like this right now.
  12. Problem is there's no such thing as future radar. That's a model that takes its initial state and runs out some amount of time. Maybe some "future radars" pull their data from actual weather models, but many do NOT. In either case, if you want to use a model, use a real model. Many sites have simulated radar for NAM and other hi-res products.
  13. idk what "future radar" you're using, but there's a 99% chance it's total crap. Most apps/sites that use "future radar" are HORRIBLE.
  14. I think of it more like liquid equivalent. Heavy snow=more QPF. Flake size is related to a lot of things like temperature and lift and tends to be good in heavy snow, but it's just a different thing. than heavy/light IMO
  15. Aw come on! That ain’t right. I want my snow day. I got meetings all day tomorrow
  16. I’m not up on my history since I haven’t been tracking snow for that long, but I do know where to find the answer! It appears you are correct.
  17. Miller Bs are just complicated. Climatologically, they’re not the MOST successful for DC, but that’s neither here nor there. IMO Miller Bs have too many points of variance to be modeled as accurately as something like a clipper or a Miller A. (Although those do bust sometimes)
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