SnowDreamer

PARA is trending closer to the parent, but it's still a high outlier by a good couple inches.

40/20 without a cloud in sight. 2m temps higher than forecast per usual

NAM twins making a BIG move in the viagra-direction for DCA.

The run isn't over, but this 4.4" jack lolli on the 3k for DCA is hilarious.

trust, no. Hug, yep

Been nervous about posting these for well... a long time. But here's my best guess:

I agree that there's opportunity there. In fairness though, IBM does have a model (which we laugh at) and they are a leading supercomputer manufacturer. I think part of the problem may be data acquisition for model input. NWS has a large network to gather data that would be really expensive to replicate. I'm not sure that data is all readily accessible. The old data adage "garbage in, garbage out" is very accurate. So even if IBM or Musk could build an epic supercomputer and program top-notch physics into it, the model would still be crap without good data.

I thought so, but we haven't really been talking about the ICON so I wasn't sure. That's actually the first I've looked at the ICON this storm

The para has been like a bully about giving DCA 8-12"... It just won't back down. Would be an EPIC coup if it wins.

The Icon looks a lot like the Euro to me. Definitely not like the Para.

The para is just an outlier, IMO. It's not like it has support from other models anymore. It was abandoned by the parent GFS and the Ukie and it's trying to hold down the weenie fort all by its lonesome. I would weight it very low right now.

Huge discrepancies in QPF right now on EURO vs. other models... Not too sure about it tbh. Even the typically dry 3k NAM has about .2" more for the NW crew than the EURO.

Yup! Just a little reference line

Para is king of weenie town, other models converging on 2-4" for DCA, plus an inch of sleet or so. The sleet has a nice effect of moving overall totals closer together. Models with 4" snow have less sleet, CMC has 2" of sleet on top of that snow.

Short pump fringed - toss

Para looking a lot like the old FV3 did a ways back... so weenie

Regular GFS accumulation plots with numbers

Convection-allowing?

That's where you're at on my map lol

I'm also digging the afternoon highs in the 30s later today. That'll be a nice way to lead into a storm for a change.

You're comparing apples to oranges there. That's a 10:1, not Kuchera

Very similar to 18Z for most. Maybe 1-2" less snow for farther N&W crew

I told him yesterday too. Sigh

It is tough for some, yeah. These are all Kuchera (WxBell) when available, 10:1 when not. Sleet is not included, and if it were, the NAMs would be considerably higher.