SnowDreamer

That’s amazing! Running can be so therapeutic. I’m sorry for your loss. I used to run every evening when I was struggling with my own happiness, and I still make a point of putting in laps on hard days. Exercise is just great for the brain, but I also think it feels good to know you got something concrete done.

@The Ole BucketI just want you to know that you have my favorite username on the board by far.

I love that you clarified your diction by not contributing any new information whatsoever. Very helpful. In case it helps you, when I said area, I meant our geographic area of VA, MD, WV. If that's not what you meant, then I can't help you. If, on the other hand, you meant the geographic area like I did, then I'd hope you'd agree that a model's performance in our area is vastly more relevant than other areas where you might be able to point to relative success. I will direct you to the disco this morning which pointed out that although the NAM was close with the warm nose, it too underestimated it. Also, I'd like to point out that the NAMs busted in large part due to QPF overestimation, not because of the mix line. You can see that in the 00Z run which you previously called cherry-picked before you specifically lauded it.

Look up "sun dog"

Uhm... This is a geographically-based sub-forum. What matters to us is how well a model performs in our area. I'm not especially interested in whether or not the NAM nailed QPF in NYC. I'm not saying the NAM is bad. It's been REALLY good this year, but 3k and 12k both busted.

Here's the final chart up through 06Z, which is the last run before snow started. I will add the verify line once DCA reports total accumulations tomorrow. Please let me know if they report anything in the mean time, because I haven't seen anything from DCA since 7am.

Add Jerusalem and Istanbul to that list btw

People are frustrated because we look at the models in aggregate. Nobody seriously expected the para to be right, and most people didn't seriously expect the 3k to be right either. There wasn't a single model I saw at 00Z last night which showed <2" of snow+sleet at DCA. For most people, that was the last guidance they saw. It was 2"+ of sleet (NAMs), or 2"+ of snow (everything else) at DCA. Yet we seem to have gotten the combo of mostly sleet like the NAMs said, but a much faster storm leading to lower accumulations. Maybe we get lucky tonight? But right now guidance looks like it may be a bust for DC across the board.

25% dingers, 25% pingers, 25% zingers, 25% clangers

Hi, welcome to BillyBob's Weather Mart, how can I help you? What's that? Oh... no we ain't got that. But if you go to the North, East, or South they might have some.

I feel your pain.

The old formula for me used to be kuchera-1”. That was pretty reliable. Now it’s more like Kuchera-2” and push the mix line 25 miles northwest

I say we ritual sacrifice @Warm Nose to the NAM twins and see if it helps.

70% sleet, 20% graupel, 10% pixie dust

Well, the models that gave me bupkis snow gave me 2” sleet. Let’s see if that verifies

PARA is trending closer to the parent, but it's still a high outlier by a good couple inches.

40/20 without a cloud in sight. 2m temps higher than forecast per usual

NAM twins making a BIG move in the viagra-direction for DCA.

The run isn't over, but this 4.4" jack lolli on the 3k for DCA is hilarious.

trust, no. Hug, yep

Been nervous about posting these for well... a long time. But here's my best guess:

I agree that there's opportunity there. In fairness though, IBM does have a model (which we laugh at) and they are a leading supercomputer manufacturer. I think part of the problem may be data acquisition for model input. NWS has a large network to gather data that would be really expensive to replicate. I'm not sure that data is all readily accessible. The old data adage "garbage in, garbage out" is very accurate. So even if IBM or Musk could build an epic supercomputer and program top-notch physics into it, the model would still be crap without good data.

I thought so, but we haven't really been talking about the ICON so I wasn't sure. That's actually the first I've looked at the ICON this storm

The para has been like a bully about giving DCA 8-12"... It just won't back down. Would be an EPIC coup if it wins.

The Icon looks a lot like the Euro to me. Definitely not like the Para.