SnowDreamer

Here's the final chart up through 06Z, which is the last run before snow started. I will add the verify line once DCA reports total accumulations tomorrow. Please let me know if they report anything in the mean time, because I haven't seen anything from DCA since 7am.

Add Jerusalem and Istanbul to that list btw

People are frustrated because we look at the models in aggregate. Nobody seriously expected the para to be right, and most people didn't seriously expect the 3k to be right either. There wasn't a single model I saw at 00Z last night which showed <2" of snow+sleet at DCA. For most people, that was the last guidance they saw. It was 2"+ of sleet (NAMs), or 2"+ of snow (everything else) at DCA. Yet we seem to have gotten the combo of mostly sleet like the NAMs said, but a much faster storm leading to lower accumulations. Maybe we get lucky tonight? But right now guidance looks like it may be a bust for DC across the board.

25% dingers, 25% pingers, 25% zingers, 25% clangers

Hi, welcome to BillyBob's Weather Mart, how can I help you? What's that? Oh... no we ain't got that. But if you go to the North, East, or South they might have some.

I feel your pain.

The old formula for me used to be kuchera-1”. That was pretty reliable. Now it’s more like Kuchera-2” and push the mix line 25 miles northwest

I say we ritual sacrifice @Warm Nose to the NAM twins and see if it helps.

70% sleet, 20% graupel, 10% pixie dust

Well, the models that gave me bupkis snow gave me 2” sleet. Let’s see if that verifies

PARA is trending closer to the parent, but it's still a high outlier by a good couple inches.

40/20 without a cloud in sight. 2m temps higher than forecast per usual

NAM twins making a BIG move in the viagra-direction for DCA.

The run isn't over, but this 4.4" jack lolli on the 3k for DCA is hilarious.

trust, no. Hug, yep

Been nervous about posting these for well... a long time. But here's my best guess:

I agree that there's opportunity there. In fairness though, IBM does have a model (which we laugh at) and they are a leading supercomputer manufacturer. I think part of the problem may be data acquisition for model input. NWS has a large network to gather data that would be really expensive to replicate. I'm not sure that data is all readily accessible. The old data adage "garbage in, garbage out" is very accurate. So even if IBM or Musk could build an epic supercomputer and program top-notch physics into it, the model would still be crap without good data.

I thought so, but we haven't really been talking about the ICON so I wasn't sure. That's actually the first I've looked at the ICON this storm

The para has been like a bully about giving DCA 8-12"... It just won't back down. Would be an EPIC coup if it wins.

The Icon looks a lot like the Euro to me. Definitely not like the Para.

The para is just an outlier, IMO. It's not like it has support from other models anymore. It was abandoned by the parent GFS and the Ukie and it's trying to hold down the weenie fort all by its lonesome. I would weight it very low right now.

Huge discrepancies in QPF right now on EURO vs. other models... Not too sure about it tbh. Even the typically dry 3k NAM has about .2" more for the NW crew than the EURO.

Yup! Just a little reference line

Para is king of weenie town, other models converging on 2-4" for DCA, plus an inch of sleet or so. The sleet has a nice effect of moving overall totals closer together. Models with 4" snow have less sleet, CMC has 2" of sleet on top of that snow.

Short pump fringed - toss