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SnowDreamer

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Everything posted by SnowDreamer

  1. SnowDreamer
    I love CWG, and they were a big inspiration to me. That being said, when they give a forecast saying 30% bust and 30% boom chances... my takeaway is that they think their main forecast is more likely wrong than right.
  2. SnowDreamer
    LOL the Euro is now the worst model for MBY... That happened so fast.
  3. SnowDreamer
    That GEPS mean looks like every textbook I-95 MECS eta: map on previous page - trying to reduce clutter
  4. SnowDreamer
    You'll find that many reputable meteorologists (read: not DT) forecast notably below the snow total maps we post here. And FWIW, they have a good reason to do so. CWG is also more conservative than many
  5. SnowDreamer
    Yes, but at this range I'd be really concerned for the GFS if it didn't
  6. SnowDreamer
    Non-native speakers unanimously voted this was where they gave up on the English language.
  7. SnowDreamer
    Alright I got the one, you guys! GEPS 00Z member 19. 53" at DCA What's bigger than a BECS?
  8. SnowDreamer
    No the Euro hasn't been super consistent on the snow totals. But tbh I think the most consistent clown maps have come from the para. It certainly looks more consistent than the euro on these maps, but obviously the clown maps aren't the defining characteristic of consistency.
  9. SnowDreamer
    I think overall it's a good sign that people have been sweating on both sides of the coin recently. There was concern by many when Euro was spitting out those huge maxes in PA with lots less in NoVA. Still have a good 36 hours for things to shift before we really get into the short range.
  10. SnowDreamer
    I think consensus is that we all take the Ukie I'm still just thrilled at the likelihood of warning criteria tbh.. Which I would have to think is very very high atm.
  11. SnowDreamer
    This could be a really big run for metros. SLP not going anywhere at all from 80-90. Eta: gets pushed straight East after.
  12. SnowDreamer
    WAA definitely thumpier than 12Z or 18Z @ hour 72.
  13. SnowDreamer
    Ukie beatdown right through the heart of the forum. Abscond
  14. SnowDreamer
    I think that's the conclusion, yeah. If the thermals are indeed wrong, more snow and sleet, less rain. But honestly I'm just waiting for it to cave instead of trying to figure out how it's wrong.
  15. SnowDreamer
    friend?
  16. SnowDreamer
  17. SnowDreamer
    Not sure where to put this, but why do some models run shorter than others? This sounds like a dumb question as I'm typing it, but bear with me. If they wanted to run the NAM 12K out to 120 or 180 I don't see why they couldn't. I know that the long range verification scores would be crap. Is it a computing allocation issue, or is that the physics aren't good enough to handle longer lead times so why bother?
  18. SnowDreamer
    There's no shortage of threats to the happiness of a true weenie. In all seriousness, we've seen more runs with late transfers than suppression issues. I know the drum of trend on Euro is being beaten, and it's definitely a drum worth playing, but I still see more late transfers modeled than suppressed solutions.
  19. SnowDreamer
    This is an important point. 925 and below is frosty, and IMO the weenie takeaway is that GFS thermals still look weird against other guidance.
  20. SnowDreamer
    This is a little late, but I'm shocked nobody posted this. The GEPS totals at DCA are nutso. Strongest MECS support I've seen from any ensemble so far. I count 18/20 with 6"+ 9/20 with 10"+ by 12z Tues....
  21. SnowDreamer
  22. SnowDreamer
    I can't find maps anywhere atm. Meteograms for DC looks pretty good. 30mm = 1.18 inches QPF as snow
  23. SnowDreamer
    Ukie a sudden contendor for most-hugged model for the NoVA/DC crew.
  24. SnowDreamer
    Big L for op
  25. SnowDreamer
    definitely warmer at 102 near DC
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