SnowDreamer

Nice bump on QPF vs. 00Z. Still not in the same ballpark as GFS, though. EURO 12Z: EURO 00Z: GFS 12Z:

I agree GFS run is too good to be true. I just like seeing some (small) progress in the Euro.

North tick, slightly more QPF up close to DC. I’ll take the progress. Still a long way to go.

Verbatim, GFS makes it up to hurricane force sustained winds as it pulls away. 70 knot surface winds @ hr 144.

Just give me this one storm. That’s all I want. One good score and I’ll go back into hibernation for summer.

I don't understand this sentiment of lost reliability. Euro still crushes all in anomaly correlation extremely consistently.

A couple members don’t quite have the thermals at lower elevations.

The blatant pessimism helps me not be so surprised when we get fringed, blowtorched, and suppressed all at the same time.

That one hurt. I may need to take a break for the 00Z runs tonight. I don't know if I can handle the next 7 days straight of this pain.

GEFS has a more consolidated wave for Feb. 1 than the EPS, but pretty sparse on snowy members... GEFS: EPS:

850s look really solid throughout. This is close to a very big hit, already not bad at all.

Good to see that spread narrow a bit

Pretty tonight from the GooFuS... no less than 3 storms in the next 2 weeks.

GFS trying to make something happen on Feb. 1 as well, 991mb in the Chesapeake at hour 276.

I don't hate the GFS 28th trend for the last several runs...It's come a LONG way

CMC looks south-er so far at 96. ULL centered about 300 miles SW of 12Z... closer to 00Z last night.

Good snow 132, 135!

A true classic, the North trend only when it screws us.

Just for fun... I assume based on your post time that these init times are correct.

12Z vs 00Z EPS best 48-hour snow mean... significantly less snow for PA + North; a little less for MD, VA, WV.

This should probably move to banter, but I feel obligated to respond as I'm studying data science. The most often-cited resource on this is: Walsh, John E.; David Allen (October 1981). "Testing the Farmer's Almanac". Weatherwise. The findings of the above study (University of Illinois) were that monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts were 52% and 51% accurate over a 5-year study period, respectively. Given an anticipated random accuracy of 50%, this suggests that their method (if any) does not significantly increase the forecast accuracy above simple guessing.

It is. To anybody who doesn’t know (me a few weeks ago), there’s a helpful little identifier after the ECMWF Ens tag. [M]=Mean [C]=Control

I'm plenty happy with that for now. At least it finally brings some colder air down so those HP give us a legit chance.

Yeah it used to be on the member panels along with all the members, but now it doesn't seem to be anywhere.

Does anybody know if WxBell allows access to the GEFS control like the EPS? I can't find it...