SnowDreamer

CMC looks south-er so far at 96. ULL centered about 300 miles SW of 12Z... closer to 00Z last night.

Good snow 132, 135!

A true classic, the North trend only when it screws us.

Just for fun... I assume based on your post time that these init times are correct.

12Z vs 00Z EPS best 48-hour snow mean... significantly less snow for PA + North; a little less for MD, VA, WV.

This should probably move to banter, but I feel obligated to respond as I'm studying data science. The most often-cited resource on this is: Walsh, John E.; David Allen (October 1981). "Testing the Farmer's Almanac". Weatherwise. The findings of the above study (University of Illinois) were that monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts were 52% and 51% accurate over a 5-year study period, respectively. Given an anticipated random accuracy of 50%, this suggests that their method (if any) does not significantly increase the forecast accuracy above simple guessing.

It is. To anybody who doesn’t know (me a few weeks ago), there’s a helpful little identifier after the ECMWF Ens tag. [M]=Mean [C]=Control

I'm plenty happy with that for now. At least it finally brings some colder air down so those HP give us a legit chance.

Yeah it used to be on the member panels along with all the members, but now it doesn't seem to be anywhere.

Does anybody know if WxBell allows access to the GEFS control like the EPS? I can't find it...

promising signs out of 12Z ensembles for the 18-20 threat window. GEFS control has a solid storm on the 19th and EPS shows some support (centered on the 20th).

Depends a lot on the forecast range you're waiting for, but WxBell lists the following: GEFS: 10:30-1:20 EPS: 1:45-2:50 Since we tend to favor ensembles in the LR, my personal rule of thumb is to wait an hour until after the OP starts.

Pivotal

Only just

GFS looks much closer on the 9th & 12th. Looking forward to the ensembles

Nice little coastal precip signature too!

I'm loving those SLP means from the 8th-14th. Looks like lots of action!

V16

00Z GEFS p10 has a pretty amazing Southeast Snowstorm... even Baton Rouge gets a foot!

Those two energies do phase off the coast on the 5th... if they phase sooner, we get closer?

GFS moves closer. Gets frozen into VA/NC.

I have nightmares about WARs like that... Not again.

The HH GFS shoots the would-be post-NYE coastal out to sea. Then nothing until epic cold front part III on day 13. Sigh

GFS looks like it’s trying hard to build a coastal after NYE but it’s too late. Still a really different look.

Heavy line just hit me east of IAD. Absolutely POURING rain... weather station says .28” in the last 10 minutes.