SnowDreamer
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Everything posted by SnowDreamer
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promising signs out of 12Z ensembles for the 18-20 threat window. GEFS control has a solid storm on the 19th and EPS shows some support (centered on the 20th).
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Depends a lot on the forecast range you're waiting for, but WxBell lists the following: GEFS: 10:30-1:20 EPS: 1:45-2:50 Since we tend to favor ensembles in the LR, my personal rule of thumb is to wait an hour until after the OP starts.
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Pivotal
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Only just
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GFS looks much closer on the 9th & 12th. Looking forward to the ensembles
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Nice little coastal precip signature too!
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I'm loving those SLP means from the 8th-14th. Looks like lots of action!
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V16
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00Z GEFS p10 has a pretty amazing Southeast Snowstorm... even Baton Rouge gets a foot!
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Those two energies do phase off the coast on the 5th... if they phase sooner, we get closer?
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GFS moves closer. Gets frozen into VA/NC.
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I have nightmares about WARs like that... Not again.
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The HH GFS shoots the would-be post-NYE coastal out to sea. Then nothing until epic cold front part III on day 13. Sigh
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GFS looks like it’s trying hard to build a coastal after NYE but it’s too late. Still a really different look.
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Heavy line just hit me east of IAD. Absolutely POURING rain... weather station says .28” in the last 10 minutes.
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I’m one away from bingo!
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Knock on wood!!!
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CMC, GFS, EURO all push that first low after Christmas farther south at 12Z compared to last night.
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Is this where someone says "Right where we want it for right now"...? Is that on the weenie bingo sheet?
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Trying to learn to read more than clown maps and skew-t charts here... can someone explain to me why this doesn’t pan out? 00z euro has a big block in the North Atlantic, closed ULL, and surface low tracking to our south. There’s tons of HP around that I feel like should force cold air down into the storm, and something kinda 50/50 ish(maybe a bit too far out to sea)? Looks not bad to me but verbatim we rain/zr.
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Anybody want to chase to that tiny 2” jackpot on Delmarva?
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I’m no expert, but we like the trend in tilt on the GFS for Christmas Eve, no?
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December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting
SnowDreamer replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
It's over for us. Rooting for the NW crew now. -
December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting
SnowDreamer replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Just switched over to mostly sleet S of Springfield.
