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SnowDreamer

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Everything posted by SnowDreamer

  1. SnowDreamer
    Past tracking has shown the graphs plummet around 36 hours out (from model init) a few times this season. That would be the 00Z runs tonight. We're looking good, but by no means home free. I'm crossing all available appendages
  2. SnowDreamer
    Both NAMs still have those 700mb winds screaming in at 90 knots, temp trend in the right direction anyway
  3. SnowDreamer
    TREND=FRIEND
  4. SnowDreamer
    Interesting panel on run-to-run 850s in the EPS... Significantly colder 850s at the end of the event supports some back-end snow
  5. SnowDreamer
    complete minus EPS for 12Z SREF and NAMs really pulling down the average, would like to see them join in by 00Z tonight
  6. SnowDreamer
    No big changes on the graph so far in 12Z suite, it's nice to see 12k on the board. GFS remains entrenched above CMC/EURO/NAM.
  7. SnowDreamer
    GFS/Ukie vs. CMC/EURO vs. NAM/SREF Pick your team before the 36 hour rug pull!
  8. SnowDreamer
  9. SnowDreamer
    Yikes that hook is gnarly! Looks like maybe a debris ball too.
  10. SnowDreamer
    UKIE still a BIG fan of this storm
  11. SnowDreamer
    .5" QPF at 34F since 10pm... what a waste of a winter shellacking
  12. SnowDreamer
    IDK, if I'm not mistaken, I believe DCA tends to report really low snow totals at or near local minimums. This is especially true in marginal events like this one. Also the fall line and R/S line aren't the same thing.
  13. SnowDreamer
    NAM is an iceberg big enough to sink the titanic for NOVA/MD. 2-3" of sleet and then 1/4"-1/2" ZR to freeze it all together.
  14. SnowDreamer
    If it busts and snows 1", you'll brag and 95% of the board will put you on ignore. If it snows 6", everyone will put you on ignore the next time you cry wolf. Doesn't seem like a win-win to me.
  15. SnowDreamer
    Hard not to like the graph at the moment...
  16. SnowDreamer
    para showing broad 2"/hr rates in the thump
  17. SnowDreamer
    Friend of mine in Alexandria had ice accrete on her jacket while walking the dog!
  18. SnowDreamer
    The GFS has a discombobulated nonsense system that gives nobody in NOVA/MD significant anything. It does, however, support snow this evening for parts of NOVA. Spoiler alert: it’s probably wrong about this evening based on the EURO/NAM/PARA/HRRR
  19. SnowDreamer
  20. SnowDreamer
    Coating - Look at all that white! Here's a trace - It's actually lightly snowing in this pic
  21. SnowDreamer
    Anybody else seeing the GFS PARA on WxBell? It's greyed-out, but looks like they may be adding it soon!
  22. SnowDreamer
    Coating = can't measure it but the ground was white-ish. Trace = White rain = MBY for the last 16 hours
  23. SnowDreamer
    I find his maps extremely bullish in most instances. They bust a lot. I think he gave DC 8" last week...
  24. SnowDreamer
    Not sure if anybody has mentioned, but SREF has been trending up for DCA all day. Last 4 runs below:
  25. SnowDreamer
    Euro also moving closer to big event on the 16th. Best panel 00Z vs 12Z shows shift South and East in snow accumulations.
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