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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    If this were to verify, i assume that would be catastrophic surge into Boston harbor?
  2. cptcatz
    Sounds like then it would show a 880mb storm riding up the east coast merging with a polar vortex causing a blizzard with 170 mph winds.
  3. cptcatz
    All major models now showing yet another potentially strong CV storm about a week behind Lee, NOT the current NHC marked orange. Looks like we're getting our answer of which will win the El Nino vs hot Atlantic...
  4. cptcatz
    18z euro ensembles definitely more sw than previous runs...
  5. cptcatz
    Yeah, still, it's not often you see Euro going to 917 in a long range forecast. This thing is gonna be a quite something.
  6. cptcatz
  7. cptcatz
    06z GFS decimates the northeast...
  8. cptcatz
    18z GFS with a carbon copy of Floyd
  9. cptcatz
    12z euro brings this down to 935mb. That's pretty unheard of from euro this far out.
  10. cptcatz
    Lololol NHC literally said "no way Jose" in their discussion. But back in topic, GFS and Euro ensembles bring this MDR system awfully close to the east coast. Looks like we could get the first legit long tracking CV storm to threaten the US since... Irma?
  11. cptcatz
    Head back to the 2023 thread, got another MDR system coming in the models.
  12. cptcatz
    Euro, CMC, Icon, and UK all show MDR development in 5 days. I wonder when we get a new lemon. This looks like it could be a long tracker ACE maker.
  13. cptcatz
    There's a nasty feeder band about to come through my house in Boca Raton. Should get interesting.
  14. cptcatz
    So the strongest winds are in the NE eyewall. Flight level recorded 71 kts, dropsonde recorded 68 kt at surface, although it had some mid-80's in between. Still not overly impressive.
  15. cptcatz
    SE eye dropsonde recorded 63 kt at the surface with max flight level wind of 65 kt. Where is NHC getting 80 mph from? Seems like even calling it a hurricane is a stretch based on measured winds.
  16. cptcatz
    GFS for the most part was the outlier for Ian. Lots of other models had it going between Tampa and Ft Myers. All the models are in agreement with Idalia.
  17. cptcatz
    I'm looking at that too. GFS deterministic showed it happening and Euro has roughly 1/3 of the members doing it. Only thing is it seems it would be pretty weak at that point.
  18. cptcatz
    lol well Euro always has trouble with intensity. But this is when GFS was seeing nada in the Caribbean.
  19. cptcatz
    Just putting this model image out there, from August 20, eight days ago, for this exact time stamp. Compare to current satellite...this is why Euro always reigns supreme.
  20. cptcatz
    Nah the GFS shows and Franklin Idalia both long gone at that point, it looks like the tail of a front that gets left behind and develops.
  21. cptcatz
    There are now 5 or 6 EPS members looping and ending with Franklin moving southwest back towards the US...
  22. cptcatz
    Lol just make it like the 13th floor of buildings
  23. cptcatz
    I gotta think even if it makes landfall around the Cedar Key area, with it forecast to be a large and east heavy storm, that would still bring in significant surge into Tampa Bay. The Tampa folks here can tell you they get surge flooding from anything more than a small breeze.
  24. cptcatz
    12z EPS with a significant shift south and east. Got a bunch of members going right through Tampa Bay and even more just to the north which would push the surge right into the Bay.
  25. cptcatz
    There's a nice area of convection popping up over the center as it appears on radar. The center appears to be well to the southeast of Cozumel and I don't see any land interaction happening as models were thinking might happen.
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