cptcatz

Here we go, the MDR is waking up

12z euro sticking with that wave...

Euro/EPS and CMC both seeing a solid wave emerging Africa in 10 days. Gotta see if they stick with it and if GFS gets on board, maybe this will finally be the start of the season.

Now this might be the most interesting thing a model has shown this season, even if it may be 384 hours out...

No, August 8 is not the peak of the season. It's not even a month away from the peak of the season. Try again.

Why are any of us on this website if we don't enjoy watching the extremes of weather? The way I see it, it makes no difference what you root for since it has zero impact on what will happen.

Can't wait til ldub eats his/her words. I'm just gonna leave this post here from August 10, 2017

lol I didn't think I come across too bullish. But... I'll do my part with a bullish response here. Models are starting to come into agreement that cyclogenesis will occur in about 4-5 days. Then you're talking about what conditions might look like in 10+ days. Models have zero idea what conditions look like 10 days down the road. Whenever I think of that, I always go back to Dorian. Here were the EPS 10 day ensembles:

Euro ensembles are picking up on it: GFS/CMC/Euro are all starting to pick up on the MDR wave as well. Could be tracking two systems next week. So much for your 0-0-0 August prediction.

With the tropics quiet for now, it's fun to look back at the older thread posts... August 10, 2017: August 11, 2017:

Here we go! Major into Mexico and another little something into Florida...

What would (or did) ldub say at this point during the 1999 season?

GEFS is starting to hint at some Caribbean/Gulf action in mid August for a few runs now. How soon before ldub changes his 0-0-0 August predicition?

I'm not making any prediction here, but for those writing off the season on July 27 needs to remember there are three months of peak season ahead of us and it only takes two months of hurricanes to make a 226.9 ACE season:

I wasn't following hurricanes back then but just taking a look at the wikipedia page, the 2000 season lived up to or outdid the forecasts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Pre-season_outlooks

Logic not even once. Statement #1 implies that MJO doesn't have as much bearing as people may think. Statement #2 implies that the MJO going negative will have a large bearing on the season.

For those responding to ldub, just remember he posted these posts in July/August 2020:

Yep, those Falcon9 launches at twilight are amazing. This was the view from my backyard.

Quoting this to come back to it to make you look like a fool in October...

That video isn't in daylight. That was the January 31 launch which launched at 6:11pm, about 10 minutes after sunset, I watched it from my backyard and it was fantastic (although the best view still goes to the Inspiration4 launch). Space/rockets interests me just as much as weather and I watch every single rocket launch from here in South Florida. After numerous tries of trying to see daylight launches in cloudless skies, I eventually gave up as they are simply not visible from here. And since the Astra rocket is 1/4 the size of a Falcon 9 and today's launch being at 1:40pm, there was a 0% chance of seeing it from Miami with the naked eye.

It did go east. The Astra rocket was not visible from Miami.

Hate to break it to you but that's an airplane. You can't see Falcon 9 rockets during the day from Miami, let alone this Astra rocket which is a quarter of the size.

It freaking failed 10 km before reaching orbit. Payload lost.

First launch is scheduled for tomorrow at noon. Hopefully it's a successful launch! https://spaceflightnow.com/2022/06/10/astra-poised-to-begin-three-launch-campaign-with-nasa-hurricane-research-satellites/

GFS had really been consistent showing a storm moving north out of the Caribbean this time next week. Talking about 7 days from now, it's not really long range fantasy. If this doesn't verify something really needs to be done with the GFS.