brianc33710

If someone else has started this feel free to delete this. I only see this topic in TN Valley & South-Central states. SPC AC 041629 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS TO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected through this evening across the Deep South. ...TX to the Southeast... Complex forecast this afternoon into the evening with several clusters of ongoing convection from southeast TX to the southern Appalachians. A moist and moderate to strongly unstable air mass exists across a broad region ahead of this activity. As noted in 12Z regional observed soundings, this is where an elevated mixed layer/plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is established atop rich boundary layer moisture with surface dew points in the low 70s that precedes an eastward-moving cold front located near the ArkLaTex and southeast Texas. Influenced by the progressive southern stream shortwave trough, storms should expand in coverage/intensity this afternoon with a corresponding uptick in wind damage potential expected aside from a persistent severe hail risk. Strengthening belt of southwesterly low/mid-tropospheric winds will support organized storms including growth into multiple quasi-linear MCSs. Widespread damaging winds, some significant, and brief tornadoes will be possible with the primary QLCS that is expected to evolve across the Lower MS Valley into AL. ...Mid-Atlantic States... With a portion of the elevated mixed-layer present across parts of the region as sampled by the 12Z GSO/RNK soundings, destabilization will be pronounced today as nearly full insolation is occurring east of the Appalachians. An MCV will probably emanate east-northeast out of an MCS that has weakened over the southern Appalachians. The net result should be the potential for scattered damaging winds from strong to isolated severe gusts as multicell clusters spread towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast. ...Mid-South to Lower OH Valley... Partial clearing is underway ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough over the Ozarks. This should contribute to sufficient recovery for a threat of isolated to scattered large hail and damaging winds downstream of this trough, along the eastward-moving cold front. ..Grams/Moore.. 05/04/2021 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1816Z (1:16PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home

I don't know if anyone else plans to post anything in here, as tomorrow marks the April 27 2011 Superoutbreak's 10th anniversary. But the Birmingham & Huntsville NWS put this together. https://04272011-noaa.hub.arcgis.com/ I'm sure some others out there have things to add & share.

New Watch Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 455 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 110 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ALC007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-049-055-071-073-089-095- 111-115-117-121-123-125-250200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0110.210424T2155Z-210425T0200Z/ AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DEKALB ETOWAH JACKSON JEFFERSON MADISON MARSHALL RANDOLPH SHELBY ST. CLAIR TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA $$

Yeah BMX just issued warning for SW Blount & NE Jefferson Cos. That includes me. Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning ALC009-073-242200- /O.NEW.KBMX.SV.W.0067.210424T2135Z-210424T2200Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Birmingham AL 435 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Blount County in central Alabama... North central Jefferson County in central Alabama... * Until 500 PM CDT. * At 435 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Arkadelphia, or 10 miles northeast of Sumiton, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Dallas, Warrior, Kimberly, Locust Fork, Trafford, Hayden, Nectar, County Line, Blount Springs, Bangor, Arkadelphia, Smoke Rise, Remlap, Rickwood Caverns and Partridge Crossroads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3380 8657 3377 8658 3376 8696 3379 8697 3380 8695 3387 8696 3387 8692 3391 8692 3392 8689 3394 8688 3393 8686 3395 8684 3394 8682 3396 8682 3395 8679 3397 8677 3399 8676 3403 8670 3405 8671 3407 8669 TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 264DEG 42KT 3384 8689 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...60MPH $$ 75 Linhares

I find it odd that the BMX & SPC has Bham Enhanced when clearly the models show the best conditions well south of us.

BMX warned for golf ball size hail w/ our hi risk 25 Mar but tennis ball in slight risk today. BMX did warn for tennis ball moderate & high 17 Mar.

The newest updates drags the east edge of Ehanced to Tuscaloosa but still west of Birmingham.

I thought for sure the Brent to Wilsonville would at least get a low-end EF-4. But we did wind up with a really wide twister.

The SPC keeps the watch just north of Birmingham. Since Blount, Cullman & Walker are in the Slight risk and we're Marginal that makes sense. Hopefully we don't get bumped up overnight.

Here is Evan Hatch's photo from Lake Murvaul TX

Isnt 90 mph borderline PDS Severe Tstm Watch criteria? The IA derecho was PDS for 80-100, but they wound up with 140 mph.

I would really like to get some sleep & the birds would rather not spend the night in their travel cages. So hopefully things settle down before reaching Cen AL. Bham is about 1/2 way between the slight & marginal borders so hopefully we can take the night off. But the Fultondale EF-3 was on a borderline marginal-slight night too. I dont know how to share it but Evan Hatch has a picture of the monster near Lake Murvaul TX on his FB feed .

Do you think that the SPC could upgrade the outlook to a Moderate?

Cancelled Shelby/Talladega CO TORW.

Should we prepare for more severe storms to fire over E MS & W AL? Or are we good?

TORE Lay Lake, Wilsonville in Shelby about to go into Talladega Co.

That 1 spun up super fast. I barely had time to take shelter. There's damage uncomfortably close to me in NE Bham.

Tornado warning for Tuscaloosa CO canceled, south storm taking some of north's power.

Where is our warm front? We havent seen any sun in a while over NE Bham but the weather is noticeably warmer than last Wednesday.

New Tornado Warning Tornado Warning ALC009-073-252145- /O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0055.210325T2044Z-210325T2145Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Birmingham AL 344 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Blount County in central Alabama... Northern Jefferson County in central Alabama... * Until 445 PM CDT. * At 343 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Warrior, or 11 miles north of Gardendale, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Oneonta, Blountsville, Cleveland, Dallas, Warrior, Kimberly, Locust Fork, Altoona, Snead, Susan Moore, Walnut Grove, Trafford, Allgood, Fairview, Hayden, Nectar, Rosa, County Line, McLarty and Bangor. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3410 8630 3405 8633 3399 8633 3375 8687 3384 8694 3395 8684 3395 8679 3403 8672 3403 8670 3406 8671 3405 8668 3408 8670 3409 8669 3408 8669 3412 8663 3412 8660 3419 8655 3420 8655 3425 8652 3426 8645 TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 236DEG 51KT 3382 8684 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ 25/Owen

Wow! I cant imagine Spann's predicament right now. His own home was hit yet he still has hours left before the outbreak winds down.

Lolol that's Spann's way of saying/identifying he's 1 of us! He definitely doesn't intend to "degrade" fellow weather enthusiasts! Very few meteorologists in the US puts forth as much effort as James Spann to personally interact with his followers/fans/viewers. I will say the same about Denis Phillips who happens to work at Tampa Bay's ABC affiliate. Phillips also wears trademark suspenders since being the 1st met to make the call in 2004 that Charley would make the sharp turn to the right, taking it in over Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda instead of coming in as a Cat 4 into Tampa Bay proper. Edit to add about Spann's almost unprecedented efforts to engage with his viewers.

JP Dice on WBRC 6 isn't sold on this event, at least not yet. He has given all 4 cats, Rain/Wind/Hail/Tornado, a medium risk. But he said that this could change should later models trend in favor of more supercells & less mess.

Spann generally says a #/5 level threat. Moderate doesn't sound scary but a 4/5 level gets the public's attention.

So far nothing from last week ranked above an EF2. We had a significant AL outbreak with total twisters though.