brianc33710

PDS Severe Tstm Watch in Cen MS. Storm Prediction Center PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293 (noaa.gov)

Well successfully tracking down a tornado that's just a little shit is better than no tornadoes at all lol. I remember 2013 when my apartment overlooked Tampa Bay I got a bunch of great waterspout pictures & videos. But my ex apparently deleted all of them from my Facebook without my permission (& a ton more). I only have 1 background picture that's 1/2 lightning strike & 1/2 waterspout left.

AL was spared a fairly significant severe weather outbreak a few weeks back due to this warm capping. Most of the other ingredients were there for a notable event. Will this hold through the night? A strong storm headed toward San Antonio died before getting there.

So for Day 1 do we have 2 MODS, 1 big MOD, 1 HIGH & 1 MOD, or 2 HIGHS? I'll go with 2 MODS but will fully admit I thought the SPC HIGHS were an overreaction Friday. I wish I had been right.

The tiniest possible corner of NW AL is in the 2/5 now. Literally, if there's a house on the AL/MS/TN front yard is Slight & the house & back yard are Marginal lol.

Concerns me that the potential for a more extensive & violent outbreak has returned. I apologize for not making that more clear.

The SPC didn't mention the possible inhibiting factors they mentioned in previous update. That concerns me.

I remember at least 2 2022 severe weather events in AL that were expected to be fairly extensive, 3(E)-4(W)/5 threats. The models showed a warm & humid influx of air from the Gulf. While the warm air mass arrived the humidity didn't. We had 80s/30C temps with >50 mph/80 kmph wind gusts but dewpoints held in the low 50s/10s in Bham & not much higher in Tuscaloosa which is almost always more humid than Bham. Usually the baseline dewpoints here for severe weather weather is 55F/12.5C. As a result we actually had a number of wildfires because of downed powerlines in advance of the delayed rain. But instead of a tornado outbreak we had less severe straight line winds. The dewpoints finally reached 60F/15.5C when the rain arrived but not before.

IF you look at the "max" in the bottom right corner it's 25.47. Look closely cause it's not on the picture itself. I just messaged you too. Please read it when you get a chance.

Check out some of these STPs. I thought the max was 20! https://twitter.com/realStarInBox/status/1642715078809067521/photo/1 OK so this may or may not work..... EDIT The link opens. I just couldn't share the photo itself. EDIT 2: I had shared a hodograph using the above given STPs but didn't want to use someone else's work from another forum. So I deleted the follow up message.

I saw Spann got caught off guard tonight when the model showed a 6F/-14.5C for Bham in this outbreak. This must be what you found. He felt the reading was too low. I'm still sticking with 7F/-14C as Bham lowest, which would match Jans '03 & '14.

The GFS shows some snow for Friday. Given the severity & speed of the air mass I find it impossible to believe we wont at least briefly switch to sleet &/or snow. The GFS has Bham at 7F/-14C & Euro has 9F/-13C.

I know last night the CMC showed the area having sub 15F/-9.5C for nights on end. I started a feed in the SE forum. I couldn't find 1 so I started 1.

I don't know if anyone has already started this. But parts of the SE US is forecast to experience its most brutal Arctic blast in 5-9 years, depending on the model. While they differ on the coldest morning, both the GFS (Fri am) & Euro (Sat am) forecast Birmingham to drop to 5-8 F/-15 to -13.5 C in this extreme cold event. The local guys are predicting 10-11 F/-12 to -11.5 C, but the models keep showing Temps under this.

The Tornado threat is fairly high. But SPC maps also significant severe winds & large hail don't appear to be expected today

Yes the SPC upgraded to a 4/5 about 1030. But the Fultondale, AL EF3 (Jan'21) & Nashville EF3 (Mar '20) formed in just upgraded to Slight Risk & the EF4 just east of Nashville formed in a Marginal Risk & 2% Tornado threat. So 3/5+ risks aren't needed for strong & even violent tornadoes.

This thread looks dead too.

Is this thread dead?

I'm working but trying to monitor things from Hoover, AL.

TDS Shelby Co but no lightning strikes anywhere in Cen AL.

Yeah that's bad!

We had a brief outbreak in central & west central AL & at least 1 appears was an EF2+ over Perry/Bibb/Shelby Co. But the situation down toward Mobile, which had 65+ dewpoints, still hasn't wound down.

The temps definitely warmed up with the very strong southerly winds but the dewpoints never increased. Last time they at least got close to 60 but today in Bham the temp briefly got to 55 before falling back to 52. Even right now with rain nearby its only 54. But I did hear that the low moisture content could make straight line winds worse than otherwise.

So Cen AL is in a "dry" dewpoints slot? They're higher east & west of here. I didn't know east GA & SC were 60+ too.

I'll remain bearish for areas near Birmingham. Last time stout SE gradient south winds brought warm air but the dewpoints barely cracked 60 in Tuscaloosa. SW flows bring in more moisture. Right now we're 74/51 & our flow is more SE than SW again. The warmth is there but not moisture & instability. Also as I've said before all of our threats since last March were at least somewhatdiminished by lingering convection that gave us very heavy rain. Eventually our "luck" will run out but I don't see that streak ending today/tonight. .