brianc33710

This was just a WAG trying to figure out why they seem so reluctant to rate tornadoes an EF5. Most members here, many of them meteorologists, find the damage on par with 27 April 2011s EF5s. Even then though there were EF4s that many experts believed should be EF5s & at least a couple EF3s that some argue were EF4s. As I said, a WAG.....thats all.

Yall may remember the Rainsville tornado on 27 April 2011. The Huntsville NWS had originally given it a high EF4 rating & the video I shared from Jim's Bham NWS that Superoutbreak still shows that. But after further research Hville NWS bumped it up to a "low end" EF5, giving it a max wind speed of > 200 mph, not even 205, just barely over 200.

If they didnt upgrade to high last Friday I doubt theyll do it now. Im sure now in hindsight they know they might shouldve. But, for what its worth, TWCs Torcons max at 5 today, 7-8 last Friday. Also, for what its worth, I found this video of a Jacksonville, IL tornado from 20 February 2014 with snow on the ground. But, the temps there that day did rise to 62F/17C. So while extremely uncommon, what could happen in MN tonight wouldnt be unprecedented. And YouTube has a few videos of "Snoradoes" as well lol. Ill post the link here too.

Would these "underratings" relate to insurance companies and/or aid groups that dole out more aid for 5s than 4s & dont want to give out more money? Im being serious, not a smart ass.....just want to make sure this comment isnt read the wrong way.

Wasn't that just an EF2, albeit 1.6 mi wide?

I know that Jim Stefkovich, Head Meteorologist at the Birmingham, AL NWS at the time of the 27 April 2011 Superoutbreak said something similar to this as it related to the debris balls from that Superoutbreak. I thought he said it in this clip from his presentation to the Alabama EMA about the Superoutbreak but its not quite word for word in this video. But Im almost certain this quote came from Jim as he mentions how those in his office felt when the debris balls appeared. In case the hyperlink doesnt work Ill share it below too. Edit: Im adding part 1/2 here for those who want to watch it. Part 2/2 is the link given above. EDIT TWO: Jim says these exact words in the first 90 seconds of his presentation from that Superoutbreak that August at TEDxTalks Red Mountain. I knew it was Jim I just had to find the right video. Ill leave the top 2 cause some still might want to see them.

Read about the April 1977 Smithfield Tornado just outside of Birmingham, AL. That 1 supposedly almost convinced Fujita to give it a F-6 rating.

Thats decent placement on the SPCs part but maybe they shouldve enlarged moderate N & E and issue a High Risk where the Mod is? TWC had someone from the Paducah NWS going over their damage assessments.

At least so far they havent gone higher than EF3 for anything. I find it hard to believe given some of the damage that nothing has even reached EF4 for 1 or several tornadoes. But yall said theyre stingy going above a 3 so maybe thats as high as we see even if its wrong.

Hopefully things quiet down as they approach Cen. AL. Im going to bed hoping things dont get too crazy in the coming hours. Stay safe out there yall.

SPC expands Slight Risk S & E. 5% Tor added.

The last MOD risk I remember was on a weekend & TWC never left its WKND programming, even with 7 TORCONs. After noon Eastern they were done for the day. This was in the upper Midwest if I remember right.

This is the Mayfield, KY courthouse as it stands tonight. Below this is its original appearance.

Its worth investigating along the whole track. The Tuscaloosa-Birmingham supercell in April 2011 looked to be close to 200 mi at 1 point. However, once investigated, the tornado showed it briefly cycled between Tarrant & Center Point, on the N-NE side of Birmingham. My Dad & Aunts live(d) within the very narrow window where the twister very briefly lifted before producing another EF-4 as it got to Center Point. Had that tornado not lifted they wouldnt still be here.

Have there been reports of debris falling from the sky in advance of these storms? I know that this happens, but being at night we may not know this.

Leachville Dollar General per this guy.

Tyler M @PA_Tropicswx · 16m A report from mayfield- All official emergency broadcast transmitters just went dead. This is catastrophic.

The cell kicked up a debris ball as it tracked thru Mayfield.

I spent a lot of time & had a lot of fun with friends who loved on the west side of the New Orleans metro -- Destrehan, Norco & LaPlace etc. My buddy from there now lives closer to Jacksonville, FL but he says he still has family that didn't/couldn't evacuate. I pray they are all OK.

Here's the lowest pressure I've found on the NWS page Galliano, South Lafourche Airport 28.33 14:15 Galliano, South Lafourche Airport28.33

Lake Charles device recorded 90 mph & gusts 130 before breaking. As another note, I didnt sign in last night b/c Ida couldnt get back to CAT 3. I woke up & shes at 150 mph! Of note, given the swampy nature of the land Ida wont weaken for a while.

MOD Risk & PDS STW but TWC still airs programs? Are they at least giving top & bottom hr updates? Admittedly PDS STW is quite rare, but a MOD Risk this time of year definitely deserves attention. EDIT They're not even giving 30 min updates!

I still have my Pinellas Co phone# but didnt get any alerts on it. But I live in landlocked Birmingham now.

Pressure dropped 1007 to 1000 mb, still high given 70 mph winds but significant drop given Elsa's BP history.

Seattle's forecast high for Monday (28 June) 108-110F/42-43C, is hotter than Birmingham's top temperature ever, 107F/41.5C. So far we've been stuck in a wet & below normal temps rut this summer. Hopefully the pattern changes sooner than later. I love the heat & humidity and not afraid to admit it!