brianc33710
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Everything posted by brianc33710
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The NWS has 3 levels of severe tstm warns. I think we'll see the high ends that triggers EMA procedures today/tonight with 80+ mph winds. -
I had thought the SPC would expand Moderate a little further east. I guess by now we know they won't go High today-tonight despite the very high straight line wind threats. Could/would the SPC issue a PDS Tornado Watch but for just the 80+ mph straight line winds & not tornadoes? I'm guessing no & the tornado threat is too high not to go with tornado not svr tstm.
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Yeah that's my thinking. I don't think we'll get close to PDS Tornado Watch territory but the high-end straight line wind is definitely there. As an aside tonight was great timing for BMX's advanced Skywarn training given its only once per season.
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Even if not High Risk, could this result in a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch situation? Or could/would the tornado threat still be too high for that? It appears the SPC issued PDS Tstm last July cause of 90 mph straight line winds but the tornado threat was lower then than now.
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Could this resemble the AM (NOT PM) 27 April 2011 system over AL? That featured the derecho & embedded EF2-3s in the QLCS. Easter 2020 had EF2-3s in a QLCS line as well. Birmingham, AL has "benefited" from flooding rains that have worked to stabilize the atmosphere repeatedly since last March. But those also caused death & destruction. Notice I said AM NOT PM for 27 April 2011! Those were separate systems to an extent in AL & I don't want to include/confuse it with the "generational" event later that day!
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How much of this area hit tonight was rebuilt after Katrina? Obviously if areas impacted had stricter building codes since 2005 this could be noteworthy.
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BMX replaced TOR with Svr T'stm warn. Tuscaloosa Co Tor Watch also canceled.
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OK. In reflection, having gone to LSU I should've remembered the distance. Im just a dumbass at times.
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How far from Biloxi AFB was this tornado? Obviously you have most of the Hurricane Hunters there.
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Tornado Watch is now in effect for most of W AL.
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The SPC gave 3 potential inhibitors later today which is I assume why they've chosen to slightly enlarge Mod without going High. I guess if any of these become less of a development distractor the SPC could bump it up later today.
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That's in the center of the Day 2 Moderate Risk & Day 2 Mod Risks are impressive in their own right. I guess we'll see if SPC upgrades to High closer to Tue & expands the other zones. Tuscaloosa is in Enhanced but there's a rapid reduction to Marginal in Birmingham. They're not sure how far north the warmth & instability reaches. I'm sure we'll be the bullseye later in the season though.
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NCAA BB tourney too
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March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
brianc33710 replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Have there been any freezing rain reports so far tonight? -
James Spann showed this map tonight. BMX has a red line w/ a 1 in the HWO for Thu. To me the weather doesnt look warm enough for a big outbreak. But things could change between now & Thu.
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Had Cen AL not "benefitted" from flooding rains 17 & 25 March and then May 2021 we would've probably have had a much more serious severe weather outbreak than we actually had. Both March days did get bad with damaging tornadoes but convection worked over the area to the point that we stopped short of what most would consider "High Risk" events.
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Here in NE Bham we finally have started to some sleet & snow mixing in with the rain.
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I think that we've now set a precedent for all winter weather threats from here in Bham on out. From now on, strange atmospheric conditions will always place themselves over within a 30 mi radius while everyone around us gets snow but we just get a cold rain.
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BMX added several counties further down to its WWA. Unfortunately I can't copy & paste the graphic and the screenshot photo is too large to share thru my phone.
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Gotcha! So that would mean a foot of sleet that far south? Ill let this go as this isnt the thread for this. Thanks for clarifying that @AirNelson39 !
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I was in Tampa Bay at that time. This could definitely surprise us. BUT actual air temps are 15-20 degrees what they were for Snomageddon 2014. For that we knew that the cold air was there but the moisture wasnt expected, Bham had never received accumulating snow at 19-20F (-7.5 to -7C) so we had 20:1 snow ratios. This time we have plenty of moisture but can the temps drop enough to make the precip stick?
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Also, has anyone else noticed the snow/ice storm all the way down to the Gulf Coast GFS has forecast for the end of January? Obviously thats a ways off. BUT, this shows Baton Rouge & Savannah would get 17", Meridian 16", Biloxi/Gulfport 15" of snow lol. That would probably take a bitterly cold airmass to make this happen.
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That's typically an almost ideal Low Pressure center for snowstorms in Cen AL. But obviously things can change.
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Cen AL had a strong gradient Feb 21. Near the AL/MS state line got significant icing while Bham hovered 33-34 the whole time. As the system pulled out we saw some snow though. Admittedly the frigid air wasnt far west of us either.
