brianc33710

4 am I think Edit 33/40 shows tornado damage just north of Moundville.

Tornado Warning Tornado Warning ALC021-037-172000- /O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0013.210317T1902Z-210317T2000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Birmingham AL 202 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Chilton County in central Alabama... Northwestern Coosa County in east central Alabama... * Until 300 PM CDT. * At 202 PM CDT, a tornado producing storm was located near Mitchell Lake, or 7 miles east of Clanton, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Weogufka, Lyle, Mitchell Lake, Dollar, Unity, Moriah, Higgins Ferry Park, Strickland Crossroads and Bentleyville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3280 8652 3285 8659 3309 8639 3305 8628 3296 8617 TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 219DEG 23KT 3285 8651 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...<.75IN $$ 40/Sizemore Edited to update expire time.

[Almost] 100% chance of tornado w/n 50 mi of any given location w/n an area. Spann has a debris cloud w/ Selma storm.

Its interesting that on the other weather forum the consensus is that the SPC WILL go with the High risk next update while on here people think the SPC will keep the risk Moderate. I need to sleep so I can get what I need done before weather gets bad by mid-afternoon. I'll see what happens when I get up mid-to-late morning. Stay safe everyone.

TX looks like its about to have a watch issued. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0188.html

The Birmingham NWS HWO has increased hail size from quarter to golf ball in the "enhanced" areas & from golf to tennis ball size in "moderate" sections. The winds outside of tornadoes are still 70 & 80 mph respectively. I guess this could increase again should the SPC increase some of Bham CWA from moderate to "high."

I would argue that, by that morning 27 April 2011, the SPC had upgraded parts of the "High Risk" areas to an "Exceptionally High Risk," adding in the 45% contour gave that event a 6/5. So, remove 27 Apr 11 Superoutbreak from the "Regular" High Risk days and then compare the rest of the High Risk events.

SPC AC 160608 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of substantial severe weather potential -- including risk for large hail, damaging winds, and several strong tornadoes -- is anticipated Wednesday from the Arkansas/Louisiana vicinity eastward across the central Gulf Coast states/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A compact/vigorous upper low initially over the Oklahoma area is forecast to move steadily eastward through the period, spreading strong flow aloft and a broad zone of enhanced ascent across the south-central and into the southeastern CONUS. This low will reach the Ozarks overnight, flanked by ridging across the Rockies, and along the East Coast. At the surface, a 998 mb low is progged to advance eastward along a similar track, crossing northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas through the day, and then the Ozarks overnight. A trailing cold front will shift from eastern portions of the southern Plains and across Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon, and then across the Tennessee Valely and central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a warm front extending eastward from the low across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and then east-southeastward across the Tennessee Valley into Georgia will linger in place on its eastern fringe, but will lift slowly northward in advance of the progressing low. These two fronts will outline a broad/moist warm sector, which will gradually destabilize through the day supporting a widespread/potentially significant severe weather event. ...Southern MO/AR/LA vicinity east to the TN valley/western GA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas southward into east Texas, and east-southeastward along the warm front across the Tennessee Valley area to the southern Appalachians. As the synoptic system advances, convection over the central Gulf Coast region/Southeast should remain generally north of the warm front, while some decrease in pre-cold-frontal convection is also expected through the morning. This should permit some heating of the moist (generally mid 60s dewpoints) warm-sector boundary layer, pushing mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by early afternoon. New storm development is expected to occur from the southwestern Missouri vicinity southward across the Arklatex region by early afternoon. Strong shear -- including veering of the wind field with height from southerly to southwesterly -- will support ready evolution of rotating updrafts, with some long-lived storms likely evolving with time. Along with large hail potential, locally damaging winds will be possible, along with a steadily increasing tornado risk through the afternoon. As storms move into central and eastern Arkansas, at least a few intense supercells are expected, within the broader area of storms. Potential for a couple of significant tornadoes is apparent, with this risk spreading into southwestern Tennessee and northern Mississippi with either pre-cold-frontal storms moving eastward into the region, or with other cells developing in a zone of increasing low-level warm advection in the warm sector/near the warm front. During the evening and into the overnight hours, substantial strengthening of the low-level southerlies across the central Gulf Coast region is expected. While some diurnal decrease in instability is expected, this should be more than offset by the increasing low-level and deep-layer shear. As such, risk for additional/significant tornadoes is anticipated to last through the overnight hours, focused particularly across much of Alabama. Hail and relatively widespread damaging winds will also be possible across this same region. ..Goss.. 03/16/2021 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0633Z (1:33AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

When was the last Moderate Risk?

Will the SPC consider upgrading this to a "Moderate Risk"? The parameters seem pretty scary. I WON'T hold out for a "High" risk. We didn't even get that for the Easter 2020 Tornado Outbreak. EDIT: JP Dice on FOX 6 says winds & large hail are the greatest threats. James Spann on ABC 33/40 forecasts tornadoes as our biggest threat. Spann seems to think the SPC will raise us to a Moderate at some point. I just don't know when to expect the SPC's next update.

I doubt that the population living in Lake Charles feels this way.

But Mitch's pressure fell below 910 mb, if I remember right.

The pressure is still very high for a 145 mph hurricane.

Delta is forecast to go over the Yucatan Peninsula & reemerge over the south central Gulf. Then it's forecast to go toward the LA coastline Fri pm/Sat am. The cooler water & increased shear should weaken Delta some before the north Gulf landfall. But the strength at its peak will still determine its strength at its final landfall.

Wow! Even tropical storm force winds extend no further than 90 mi from Delta's center! Hurricane force is only 40 mi from the eye. EDIT: Gilbert hit Cancun as Cat 5 in September 1988 & had a tiny eye too. I'm not saying that Delta will reach 185 mph with a 888 mb pressure, but there are obviously some similarities.

I think that Sally being the first hurricane to affect the Mobile-Pensacola area since we sold our condo almost 2 years ago counts as "banter." My mom is sleeping more soundly than she would otherwise.

This is part of the MS "Pine Belt."

Purvis 10 min from the tornados path. Hattiesburg, w/ 46 k, isn't that far from its track.

Why isn't there still at least some daylight near that cell? TWC has the feed, and its very dark there.

Well, BMX has now pushed the 5 zones further south. Hamilton, Cullman & Gadsden has no risk at all. Jasper, Birmingham proper & Anniston are marginal. But the southern tip of Jefferson Co, most of Shelby Co, Tuscaloosa & Sylacauga are labeled slight. From Eutaw to Clanton to Alexander City is enhanced. And Demopolis, Selma, Montgomery & Auburn are still moderate. I guess we will just get everyday storms with a ton of rain, but that could cause flooding problems on its own.

SPC/BMX has Bham in a slight risk. Not far north is only marginal, while not too far south is enhanced. I guess they're just waiting to see where the models take the low. I think that the slight risk means that the warm front makes it to about I-20. The airmass won't be as cold & dry as Easter morning but still not conducive as needed for a significant outbreak. So, we need warm air invection, but not as much. But, we probably won't get as much as what came thru Easter either. If later models move the low north, then the risks will shift with it. S AL could wind up with what weather they feared last Sunday but didn't get.

I haven't been able to keep up today. Did the SPC expand the moderate risk N & E? Much of what happened later was in the "enhanced" risk.

The SPC was right to NOT upgrade this outbreak to a high risk. This was a significant severe weather outbreak, but moderate risk much better summarizes what did & didn't happen. The 1st PDS TW was right but the 2nd didn't really reach the criteria. We had an EF-4/5, and we don't yet know the number of EF-2/3s. And of course we had some EF-0/1s. I guess we will find out more over the next 2-3 days. I know it's not 100% over. I just want to qualify what I wrote.

Yeah, the supercell started in MS and held together all the way until the 4000+ ft mtns in NC finally tore it apart, over 8 hrs & can't remember how many 100s miles.

Yeah. The PDS TW 110 had some strange probabilities. The SPC gave a 90% chance for wind damage but just 10% for 65+ kts. We had non-tornado winds up to 80.