brianc33710

Okay, I will share what I wrote on another weather talk site since it applies here two ways, so this isn't plagiarism: I think maybe this event would resemble a 15 April 2011 with an EF-4 or 5 added in to the event, MAYBE 2 4/5s at most. I guess the # of tornadoes in 2011 + the violent tornado from 08 April 1998. This would resemble a once-a-decade type of event but short of a superoutbreak. I guess one other thing I'm trying to say, beyond the fact that I think 27 April 2011 is a generational/meteorology career type of even, is those less informed weather geeks (no shade, see below) who get high on the hype leading up to that event. Looking back thru these weather threads from 9 yrs ago, some of the bloggers & members kept hoping that the event WOULD live up to its potential, and went into overdrive once the storms began to fire. Of course, that event did live up to 90-95% of its potential, so these overeager members did indeed get what they "wanted." However they had failed to anticipate the hundreds of deaths, the thousands of injuries, and the billions of dollars that would result from that superoutbreak. So, from a fellow weather geek (but more informed) like myself, PLEASE be careful for what you wish for. Once you get it, the guilt and sadness could last you a lifetime.

Yeah, Birmingham is now in level 4/5. James Spann remarked in this morning's Weather Extreme video that the SPC typically doesn't issue a Moderate Risk for day 3. At least with everyone stuck watching Easter services on TV everyone should be close to, if not at, home when the storms come through.

We will know more tomorrow morning. Unlike during hurricane season, I don't plan to stay up on edge for every model update.

Fred Gossage, also a Birmingham, AL meteorologist (and he was once active on here), posted about the potential danger from Sunday's event on his personal FB page. I am not a friend of his, but you can see what he has written on his personal Facebook page.

ABC 33/40 Meteorologist James Spann shared soundings for Tuscaloosa, AL Sunday afternoon. He says that the forecast show a PDS situation and that the trends aren't looking good for the SE. Spann shows the soundings between 3:35 & 3:50 on this afternoon's Xtream Weather video.

Was the Auburn, AL tornado a "Moderate Risk Day, or just an "Enhanced Risk Day"? Yes. I'm not an "Expert," but I do remember how guilty and solemn bloggers felt after 27 April 2011 DID live up to all of the hype.

Okay. Yeah, this is my first post (yeah, a "new" guy), but I've been a member for a while. Was today the first "45%" contour since 27 April 2011? Having bookmarked that thread years ago, I don't think the SPC ever even went with 60% that day, although it was justified. The SPC was probably too busy by 20z to do the 60%. And, yes, I remember PDS TW 235 (everything >95%) as well. And, yes, I've tried not to ask questions already answered.