brianc33710

Now the AL tornado total from last Wed sits at 24, 6th all time for AL. That's more twisters than the 08 April 1998 High Risk, but obviously without any EF3+ (maybe 1 might still come around) tornadoes like the F5 that hit Pleasant Grove 23 years ago.

Christmas 2012 in AL was another battle between the storms & a warm front. North of the front featured severe thunderstorms. But in the warm sector closer to the coast tornadoes developed & did move extensive damage. I will say this though. The stars almost aligned yesterday to give us an event probably somewhere between Easter 2020 & 27 April 2011. The spring is still young & the Gulf has more to warm before the Dixie Alley outbreak risks subside. I have a feeling we will have something like what was possible yesterday in the next couple of months. I of course could be wrong but my gut tells me to remain prepared.

Didn't we exceed these thresholds last Easter? Edit: Should the SPC create a 6th/"Extreme Risk" level for those rare days? I would argue that the 45% contour signifies this. We had this 27 April 2011 & it verified. But we also had it yesterday & it didn't. Edit 2: I also think that the NHC should consider adding a Category 6 for hurricanes 185 or higher. But they haven't done so.

Most of the AL damage did, although along the south & east edges.

I'll say underperformed, probably bust is a bit too far for those who got injured & have damaged homes.

This extreme is better than what happened in Nashville last March. Also the January Fultondale, AL EF-3 was from a marginal to maybe slight risk day. I would rather over than under prepare. Edit Parts of AL have seen some significant damage today though.

If anything, the Flash Flood threat from this system is probably larger than they had anticipated though. I won't say a full bust. I know that troll is all over himself right now though. He went to another site to troll after getting booted here.

24 April 2010 came back from the dead though

TWC is looking for words right now too. Easter 2020 should've been a high risk though. Edit.....we had injuries & damage. A Moderate risk was appropriate for this outbreak though.

The Nashville tornadoes werent expected either last March either.

Spann said the line is coming though faster than planned. My fear is that we will get walloped in a couple of weeks when not expecting it to make up for this.

I hope so. I havent seen the sun in hours. Bham 68/64 right now.

4 am I think Edit 33/40 shows tornado damage just north of Moundville.

Tornado Warning Tornado Warning ALC021-037-172000- /O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0013.210317T1902Z-210317T2000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Birmingham AL 202 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Chilton County in central Alabama... Northwestern Coosa County in east central Alabama... * Until 300 PM CDT. * At 202 PM CDT, a tornado producing storm was located near Mitchell Lake, or 7 miles east of Clanton, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Weogufka, Lyle, Mitchell Lake, Dollar, Unity, Moriah, Higgins Ferry Park, Strickland Crossroads and Bentleyville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3280 8652 3285 8659 3309 8639 3305 8628 3296 8617 TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 219DEG 23KT 3285 8651 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...<.75IN $$ 40/Sizemore Edited to update expire time.

[Almost] 100% chance of tornado w/n 50 mi of any given location w/n an area. Spann has a debris cloud w/ Selma storm.

Its interesting that on the other weather forum the consensus is that the SPC WILL go with the High risk next update while on here people think the SPC will keep the risk Moderate. I need to sleep so I can get what I need done before weather gets bad by mid-afternoon. I'll see what happens when I get up mid-to-late morning. Stay safe everyone.

TX looks like its about to have a watch issued. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0188.html

The Birmingham NWS HWO has increased hail size from quarter to golf ball in the "enhanced" areas & from golf to tennis ball size in "moderate" sections. The winds outside of tornadoes are still 70 & 80 mph respectively. I guess this could increase again should the SPC increase some of Bham CWA from moderate to "high."

I would argue that, by that morning 27 April 2011, the SPC had upgraded parts of the "High Risk" areas to an "Exceptionally High Risk," adding in the 45% contour gave that event a 6/5. So, remove 27 Apr 11 Superoutbreak from the "Regular" High Risk days and then compare the rest of the High Risk events.

SPC AC 160608 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of substantial severe weather potential -- including risk for large hail, damaging winds, and several strong tornadoes -- is anticipated Wednesday from the Arkansas/Louisiana vicinity eastward across the central Gulf Coast states/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A compact/vigorous upper low initially over the Oklahoma area is forecast to move steadily eastward through the period, spreading strong flow aloft and a broad zone of enhanced ascent across the south-central and into the southeastern CONUS. This low will reach the Ozarks overnight, flanked by ridging across the Rockies, and along the East Coast. At the surface, a 998 mb low is progged to advance eastward along a similar track, crossing northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas through the day, and then the Ozarks overnight. A trailing cold front will shift from eastern portions of the southern Plains and across Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon, and then across the Tennessee Valely and central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a warm front extending eastward from the low across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and then east-southeastward across the Tennessee Valley into Georgia will linger in place on its eastern fringe, but will lift slowly northward in advance of the progressing low. These two fronts will outline a broad/moist warm sector, which will gradually destabilize through the day supporting a widespread/potentially significant severe weather event. ...Southern MO/AR/LA vicinity east to the TN valley/western GA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas southward into east Texas, and east-southeastward along the warm front across the Tennessee Valley area to the southern Appalachians. As the synoptic system advances, convection over the central Gulf Coast region/Southeast should remain generally north of the warm front, while some decrease in pre-cold-frontal convection is also expected through the morning. This should permit some heating of the moist (generally mid 60s dewpoints) warm-sector boundary layer, pushing mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by early afternoon. New storm development is expected to occur from the southwestern Missouri vicinity southward across the Arklatex region by early afternoon. Strong shear -- including veering of the wind field with height from southerly to southwesterly -- will support ready evolution of rotating updrafts, with some long-lived storms likely evolving with time. Along with large hail potential, locally damaging winds will be possible, along with a steadily increasing tornado risk through the afternoon. As storms move into central and eastern Arkansas, at least a few intense supercells are expected, within the broader area of storms. Potential for a couple of significant tornadoes is apparent, with this risk spreading into southwestern Tennessee and northern Mississippi with either pre-cold-frontal storms moving eastward into the region, or with other cells developing in a zone of increasing low-level warm advection in the warm sector/near the warm front. During the evening and into the overnight hours, substantial strengthening of the low-level southerlies across the central Gulf Coast region is expected. While some diurnal decrease in instability is expected, this should be more than offset by the increasing low-level and deep-layer shear. As such, risk for additional/significant tornadoes is anticipated to last through the overnight hours, focused particularly across much of Alabama. Hail and relatively widespread damaging winds will also be possible across this same region. ..Goss.. 03/16/2021 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0633Z (1:33AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

When was the last Moderate Risk?

Will the SPC consider upgrading this to a "Moderate Risk"? The parameters seem pretty scary. I WON'T hold out for a "High" risk. We didn't even get that for the Easter 2020 Tornado Outbreak. EDIT: JP Dice on FOX 6 says winds & large hail are the greatest threats. James Spann on ABC 33/40 forecasts tornadoes as our biggest threat. Spann seems to think the SPC will raise us to a Moderate at some point. I just don't know when to expect the SPC's next update.

I doubt that the population living in Lake Charles feels this way.

But Mitch's pressure fell below 910 mb, if I remember right.

The pressure is still very high for a 145 mph hurricane.