brianc33710

When did this HRRR update? This map shows more snow in Cen AL than others Ive seen. More sleet too but the freezing rain still stays well E of Cen AL.

Huntsville NWS issued a Winter Storm Watch but just for DeKalb & Jackson Cos., not even a Winter Weather Adv for any other AL counties. But all their TN counties have a watch. They havent updated their graphics since 7:30 AM which was before adding DeKalb & Jackson to the watch.

Maybe we could/should lower the EF5 criteria from x>200 to x=200+. Having multiple EF4s exactly at 200 when its just 1 mph away from that upgrade makes 0 sense at best.

This was a bit further back in the thread, but I had used the 2011 Tuscaloosa-Birmingham Tornado as an example of a tornado thought to be on the ground 100s of miles only to find it very briefly cycled over NE Bham. Had it not cycled my Dad's & Aunts house would've been badly damaged if not completely destroyed. The twister lifted near Tarrant & dropped a new EF4 once the supercell reached Center Point.

And we're under a Winter Weather Advisory tonight. Its heavy snow in Tuscaloosa & 34 but rain & 51 in Birmingham.

The time is now 12:16 CST. From what I can see Birmingham stayed above 70 all 24 hours NYD. I feel fairly certain we broke the record for warmest minimum temperature ever in meteorological winter! EDIT: Ive emailed BMX & James Spann but dont expect to hear back til the severe threat ends.

So far our low for Birmingham today is 71. There has never been a 24 hr min temp 70+ In meteorological winter in Bham. In December 1991 (my High School senior year) we had a 70/1 am low but dropped to 69 before midnite. So these temps in & of themselves amaze others out there & me. I guess we wait & see if the storms knock us back below 70 before midnite.

Yeah SPC just issued a Tornado Watch for our area, Cen AL.

Yeah lol! Now 80/69 in Bham! Bham Jan record 81 10 Jan 49. This is even above Key West NYD norms.

Bham temp 77 dewpoint 70 on NYD!?!? This would be impressive for even Tampa Bay in January!

WOW! Bham 77 temp 70 dewpoint! This would be impressive for Tampa Bay today! But the best dynamics appear to be NW of us. Happy 2022 everyone while I'm at it.

I got caught off guard when I turned on the TWC & they had Thu hi 55, Thu lo 19, Fri hi 37 & Fri lo 24. BMX has 25 Thu nite & 43 Fri. I like that better, even though I'd be happy with 70s all winter long. I miss Tampa Bay.

So they may go Moderate if convection doesn't overwhelm the dynamics & makes these areas "messy."

I think that we probably need to rename this thread from 12-29-21 and 1-1-21 to 12-29-21 and 1-1-22.

I actually installed the Tropical Tidbits app on my phone last spring. I thought I'd have the ability to check out the models on my end but it only shows an invest off of Australia's northeast coast.

I hope you're right. But that Feb 21 freeze was originally forecast to aim further east. I hope you're right & Spann certainly is not forecasting that. But Feb 21 TX freeze caught my attention to say the least.

NO THANK YOU!!! You can have single digit lows where you live but we don't want/need them in AL!

My concerns are for a December 1984-January 1985 type setup this winter. I emailed James Spann about the similarities about 2 weeks ago. He messaged back saying this could be worth watching. Within the last week he posted something about our Dec 84-Jan 85 similarities, I think that was La Niña as well, in response to a complaint "winters aren't cold anymore." He clearly said he didn't predict/guarantee/forecast a Jan 85 killing freeze would happen but said to keep things in mind that we could go from very warm to frigid cold in a matter of weeks. I hope I'm wrong & worried for no reason. In fact I thought things had "warmed" enough so that we wouldn't fall below 5F/-15C ever again. We haven't seen this widespread in Cen AL since Feb 96 & they used to more frequently than now. But TX last February proved that "impossibility" wrong. Yes I remember Christmas & December 1984 were just that warm, not quite as warm as 2021 but still way above average. In fact our 77F/25C today broke the Dec 84 of 75F/24C. Unfortunately January 1985 featured the coldest temps Birmingham had seen since the 1940s. Also, the official Birmingham reporting station in January 1940 recorded a +1F/-17C low but the airport where official readings now originate dropped to -10F/-23C. So while our -6F/-21C temp January 1985 temp was the lowest "official" reading since February 1899, I'll go with the airport -10F/-23C reading from the airport in January 1940 as the better gauge over the records on file.

Heres a video from the main office of FNB Bank in Mayfield 10 Dec 21. Im amazed the recordings survived.

Hahaha! I remember driving down to see a close friend the week before Charley hit! And how everyone fled Tampa Bay which got almost nothing for Orlando that had 105 mph wind gusts. He intensified fast as it took its unexpected last minute right turn.

Yeah Hackelburg-Phil Campbell EF5 was almost 130 mi & maxed 1.25 mi wide.

Admttedly Its Wikipedia, but heres a report from the 27 April 2011 Superoutbreak that looks directly taken from the NWS damage surveys. So this is what 10.5 years ago what each significant tornado was rated & why. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Super_Outbreak#Notable_tornadoes

And this thread is about underrated tornadoes. Obviously there are a ton of people wondering why they rated damage EF4 when there appeared to be EF5 & EF3s that others consider EF4s. Ill stay away from spreading what could be inaccurate info though, but there are plenty of pissed off people out there regarding ratings. Thats for sure, Ill leave this at that.

Wild Ass Guess