Holston_River_Rambler

I would post it, but weathermodels doesn't have a lot for the GEPS. It's not even in their regular model "selection" and you have to go to model labs and click through it frame by frame, without a ton of panels.

Speaking of the latest SREFs:

12z UKMET from hr 114 - 168:

@Carvers Gap No worries, just killing time till lunch and the Euro right now, lol.

Just realized I hadn't even looked at the mid range overnight UKMET: the 12z run is still out to only about hr 40 or so on F5

CMC ice accums:

And the CMC looked to me like it was just going to have another wave ride that front after hr 240.

Looks like it will be another fugly ice map for middle and western TN though, even into places like Louisiana.

The front finally makes it to the plateau on the CMC at hr 240, lol.

Obed this AM: 5 - 6 degree temp difference across Morgan county already, may not be looking so good for me. 37 in Mossy Grove and 31 in Lancing.

Regarding the Euro's depiction of the arctic front, here are some gifs that compare the new parallel Euro (left) to the current operational Euro. 2m temps/ 24 hour snowfall/ MSLP (no 500 mb charts available for the para). Looks like the parallel is a compromise between the far western Euro solution and the more easterly GFS .

Apparently the disturbance was onshore as of 0z last night, so "hopefully" no more big flippty floppities:

6z Euro:

Hopefully we can get some virga falling over the area by noon to help lock these temps in. Looks like 40 North should keep the clouds today:

Big South Fork for the win!! Man, if I had a 4WD truck, I would be there tomorrow PM, lol

More boundary layer issues in some parts of the valley tho

0z HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR looks Euro/ RGEMish

Just out @McMinnWx

We've noticed that the Euro has a tendency to overamp storms in the mid range, right? What if it is overamping a big cyclone in the N. Hemisphere and that just has huge implications because what we are dealing with is a major TPV piece and any small changes in it's location can have big consequences: a 969 low S. of Greenland and a 959er in the Aleutians. GFS is totally different with those major storms: CMC looks more like the Euro, but still gets the cold eastward.: The one feature that really stands out to me is the low and associated energy west of the W coast: maybe that is exerting influence and pulling the bigger energy westward. To extend Carver's hurricane analogy, it's as if you have a cut off in the fall over TX or the Gulf, and it helps steer a hurricane more west? If that ends up incorrect though, it might be able to swing SE more. Yesterday's 12z Euro run had the feature much weaker:

I mentioned the parallel Euro earlier. The new version of the Euro that is supposed to be operational later this year: I'm sure it's not currently the OP for a reason, but I'll take that over cold rain or ice, any day...

Back in MoCo now. Here are the EPS members snowfall through hr 180. That may give some hint as to where to sees the boundary.

I'll be interested to see if there are any adjustments at 0z. If the Lillo info is right, the RAOB data do seem to have an effect on model output, though I suspect it gets less as 0 hour nears.

12z Euro out to hr 54. On a phone in Knoxville right now so this is all I have: https://imgur.com/a/UJv3cG5

Yeah for sure. Although I remember a few ice storms right on the Holston River in west Kingsport. I’m hugging the 0z para Euro right now (posted on the SE forum in the mid - long term disco)

People better stock up on beer and cigs, cause the police ain’t bringing em.