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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z EPS low clusters:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Verbatim a bomb. Drops 30mb in 24 hours
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's a pretty energy pass. And, what's more, another vort is really trying to catch it: 977 in Souther New Jersey:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Comparison gif from 0z to 12z today time stamp is 18z Sunday:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie looked pretty good with the energy's approach, but dives it a little too far south:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    TT doesn't have the precip maps yet, but here are the 850s and SLPs:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out how different the last 4 SLP maps look on the CMC:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's wild. Last 4 runs of the CMC, ending with 12z today:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I'm interested in seeing, if we get a vort track similar to what the 12z GFS is showing, is how the surface low hand off works in this situation. It almost looked like it tried to pop one in the NE Gulf, then off the SE coast. Would that perhaps mitigate some of the normal eastern valley warm nose issues? I don't know. I've never seen a storm take a track like this, as far as I can remember, while I've been tracking these on the forums.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    We're just going to pretend Kuchera rations don't exist on this one:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Is John planning a trip to Chattanooga to something this Sunday?
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    COD is out to 120 and we have this:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    IMO the vort is ever so slightly deeper and slower at 96
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Let us take a moment to gaze at the energy for this potential storm: Lookin' fat and sassy north of Hawaii
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh I agree the OP is far west, 100%. I guess I was just looking for something on the ensembles that suggested the energy was taking a similar track to the OP and popping a low that ran from vaguely New Orleans to somewhere near the Outer Banks.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    It would be interesting to see how weatherbell and weathermodels create their plots: I'm seeing a few lows that take a track similar to the 6z OP.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro keeps the energy more intact than the 0z Euro and it is barreling towards the western Gulf at the end of its run: (edited to add the 6z GFS for comparison)
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I zoomed in on my 3 favorites for something a little easier to see:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know, I think there is a little support from the 6z GEFS members: Sorry for the horrible resolution, but it's all I've got. But there are a few members who take a similar track
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z Euro wasn't really there yet, but IMO it did trend that way, with the energy dropping in more westerly and trying to round the trough:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's crazy how the last two runs of the GFS have turned it into a full blown Miller A type coastal, instead of an OTS suppressed storm.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Mr. Kevin
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is kind of what the tropical forcing has been doing all winter, at least that's how it seems to me. It will get into a better place and just as it seems it will either set up shop there or progress into and even better phase, it takes a step back. Each time it starts moving again though, it does get a little better than the last time it progressed before the regression. Some sort of blend of the Euro's progression and the BOM progression seems to have worked out pretty well so far. I'm not taking these plots day-by-day literally, but sort of as a general idea of the progression and regression. BOM seems to have generally had the right idea, but sometimes has been too quick and the Euro has curbed it's enthusiasm, while eventually going roughly where the BOM says it will go long term: TBH I wouldn't be surprised if the 6z GFS is sniffing what the above RMMs are cooking. But the GFS is hungry for a progressive pattern and change and it ain't dinner time just yet.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    For anyone (like me) who was watching the 18z GFS roll in and wondered why there weren't more hits, those Baja/ Cali upper lows killed us. They helped shred the energy that was taking aim at us as it cruised in from Canada. I feel like a good (but not the only) trajectory for vorts to hit us from is the narrowest part of Idaho, to Shreveport, LA. The jet was slingin' em at us, but unless one of those pieces can overpower the Cali/ Baja low, it shreds it. Luckily the Euro doesn't show energy getting hung up there for as long as the 18z GFS.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's the elusive octopus pattern on the happy hour GFS:
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