Holston_River_Rambler

0z Euro pulls the boundary through after the early week storm and the next system is able to hit a bit further east: It may not happen that way, but that is at least a reasonable evolution of the pattern that could help eastern areas. All other modeling has that system too far west for eastern areas, but the CMC does have a second wave ride the front of teh second system, so some hints taht it sees that evolution as possible. EPS members see some possibilities there: Again I like that window because it seems a reasonable way that this pattern could hit areas east of BNA. But I've also noticed (and others have mentioned that they've noticed it as well) that these ensemble members seem to follow the OP, at least if you are looking for an individual system. The dispersion is probably good for seeing the pattern's evolution out in time, but I'm not sure it is so great for a specific system. Here's an interesting way to visualize that: This is a gif of the 24 hr snowfall at Crossville as the 50 EPS members see it, for the past 7 runs. At first they saw a distinct window centered on the 17th, but over time, that window shifts to the 19th. This seems to follow how far the Euro has seen the boundary making it. I just can't decide if it is a legitimate window, or will the EPS push it back yet again?

I think we're at the point where all the water is releasing its latent heat, at my house. 32 and drippy here in Mossy Grove with a brisk NNW wind.

34.7 and moderate rain here in Morgan County

"If you plan for the worst, no surprises are unpleasant." --Robert Jordan, The Shadow Rising

Down to 35 here in Morgan county.

Hopefully we can get a rumble or two of thunder.

Might could be

18z Euro for western TN/ MS/ KY/ AR peeps:

18z RGEM sticking to it's cold and wintry guns:

Spring is on its way: Key:

Almost no hits from Jackson to BNA as far as I can tell on 0z Here are the two means: 0z 12z

EPS snow members for the early next week storm:

Hopefully whatever that Super Nino did to the atmosphere has run its course now. This gradient TN pattern is what I've always heard associated with Ninas and it seems we finally have one.

I'm particularly a fan of the "Winter Storm" wording on Monday, lol

Houston FTW:

La Nina = SE ridge in Feb El Nino = SE ridge in Feb La Nada = SE Ridge in Feb

Who's excited for the usual suspects on wxtwitter to start the chatter about the next "Scandy/ Urals ridge" "Epic -NAO incoming" "Beast from the East part 2"?

Happy for anyone out west who gets snow, but it really stinks to have a -NAO consistently knock back the SE ridge all winter, only to disappear when we get some arctic air to work with. Great looks for whoever is able to negotiate that boundary though:

Round two incoming for west TN on the Euro:

Sorry should have added the above is through hr 120.

IMO the Euro was a bit better, but still drives the low over my head, here in Morgan County. Euro ice (FRAM accums, whatever that means): Euro snow:

Euro is digging the shortwave for the early week system a little more over N Mexico. Will see if it has any impact as the run wears on.

To be honest, IMO, the UKMET has usually been off in its own little world this winter. I still can't tell if the one I post the precip maps from (F5 wx's UKMET that goes out to hr 168) is any different. The visuals pivotal and F5 create for their respective versions of the UKMET data are so different, that it's hard to tell.

New v 16 GFS looks good my buddy in Oklahoma, lol: only through day 10

The other extended UKMET won't be out until around 130, but looks like it might hit western areas with another snow.