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Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Honestly not sure.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    From the AFD: "Our hazards issued and latest WSSI from WPC depict this thinking pretty well with lesser winter storm impacts nearly east of the I-75 to 40 to I-81 corridor. A portion of this area doesn`t meet minor impacts, even." Here is the WSSI they mention from the WPC:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX updated their ice accretion forecast about an hour ago:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice dendrite in the pre dawn hours: The actual Baja low hasn't made landfall on Baja quite yet:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sleet and snow here in MoCo too.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    @tnwxwatcher I would not be surprised if precip. starts quite a bit earlier than most models were showing last night based on the obs. above. I still think noon is a good call for travel getting worse, but if possible, I'd try to finish up those deliveries in Sevier county in as safe and an expeditious way as possible.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just a quick reminder, I made an obs thread now that we are getting precip. You may also post there if you wish. I am not a moderator and would not tell anyone what to do, but I do now some folks like to read the straight up obs. in the long hot summer months.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wow, I was about to say I bet a lot is virga based on the hole around OHX radar:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    IMO if you can get all that done before noon you will be fine, of course no idea what Sevier county traffic will be like.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Now to be totally fair, the HP has weakened some (based on SPC mesoanalysis) since contentwx posted the above:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Might as well throw of Cranky/ contentwxguy out against the wall too, and see if anything sticks: Since he originally posted a gif, here is one showing the wavebreak he drew in
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the trend centered on 0z this evening, def slower moving out of TX. Heights have also been creeping south out that way.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    One other thing to consider especially north of I-40. When the transition happens, there is usually an area with humongo snowflakes (fatties, as it were) just on the leading edge of that warm nose.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Best guess I have is that the HP is bullying the system a bit. The real challenge to the HP comes when the Baja low fully ejects and starts to interact with the n. stream shortwave dropping in now through NW Canada. I guess we could look at the confluence over the NE to see if that has trended stronger? There is a touch more confluence on the RGEM over NE and I do mean just a touch. Most of the early precip. on the first wave is driven by frotogenesis, isentropic upglide (presumably not unrelated), and jet dynamics over the upper OH Valley. LLJ doesn't really hit TN until after 3 tomorrow (eastern time), So I guess there is some scenario where this first wave overperforms wrt frozen as opposed to freezing for favored areas. But I don't see much of a window outside of TN and VA/KY border counties (eastern areas only here since out west TN it is a different story) past maybe dark tomorrow when that LLJ gets cranking.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I am wrong to say the RGEM is usually a colder (biased) model? It just surprises me that it has continuously ticked S. Is it slower, colder, south? All of the above? Don't get me wrong, I'm don't see su dodging the ice bullet completely, but it does look like the HP is bullying things a bit.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here you go: Good tropical connection and you can see the shortwave that shall not be named dropping in over Alberta:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    wow. If y'all haven't had the front pass by in East TN yet, get ready. That N/NW wind has a bite.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is what I was looking at when I made the south call:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Or maybe just colder
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM looks a bit south at 18z:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Strangely enough the 12z EPS actually favors the period after the big storm on the GFS and CMC. Maybe not tha tstrange since the Euro didn't have it, but maybe there's a "split the difference" reality in there. Elizabethton as just an example
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    It is interesting that a lot of the models were keen on a storm around the 28th until this weekend's behemoth began to coalesce. Maybe it pushed the signal back a bit? Maybe the pattern is just conducive for chances?
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    For posterity, since no one else did, I'll throw some images out:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    I mean everything has a gulf storm in about as reasonable agreement as anyone could expect at 200 hours. I guess we'll see what manner of a rug pull happens if and when the rug gets laid down. Will it be a rug yanker? A flopper? A shredder? An incineration?
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    What is BAMS? Please don’t tell me BAM has started selling some in house model to News stations? That would make me sad.
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