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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah it was a little better than 0z: looked to me like it tried to phase over western TN and AL
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro looked better with the southwest shortwave than the 18z GFS and the 12z Euro, IMO: Brings a more consolidated shortwave out.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just a quick glance at the GEFS and it looks like it is east of the OP, with the mean vort maps out to around hour 78.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I hope so. Some chunk of that 4 corners shortwave has got to kick out, or everybody loses accept for down east Maine and Nova Scotia, lol.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    In that set up we can hopefully get one of the northern shortwaves to be an over performing clipper.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour is filled with northern stream sadness. The vort gets so far west it can't manage to get east enough to phase with the secondary s/waves coming in from canada:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's gotten so far west, that the GFS is trying to cut it off this time:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    The western ridge is once again coming in slightly taller on the 18z GFS.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not so great at reading the stormvista maps yet, but it looks like there are quite a few members of the EPS west of the OP: Obviously still not great for us, but I think we would like that western trend to continue as long as possible.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    In all seriousness, if that western piece of energy holds together better than modeled and we still get shortwave interaction like the above...
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well, that didn't age well in the time it took me to look at the qpf maps, lol. But man that energy interaction just screams big storm to me.: I'll take it's move towards the GFS as a win at 12z though!
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    OMG I just went back to the vort maps out to hr 120. I can't wait to see the MSLP and precip outputs, lol.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've not seen the surface maps, but that one also feels like it would be good for TRI
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Man, I would love that look if I was a MA weenie.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't think this will end up being a super duper awesome run, but I think the Euro will end up having made a sizeable jump towards the GFS.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Don't want to disrupt the Euro PBP too much, but just got an update on the CMC: https://status.commoditywx.com/?utm_source=embed
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Compared to the 0z Euro, the ridge is coming in taller in the Pac.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm with you in the "not get sucked in," but the boom ceiling for this is pretty high if it all comes together just right. A couple things for me that are making it hard not to get sucked in: 1) the fact that csnavywx mentioned the models are having difficulty resolving the breakdown of the Pac ridge. That so far seems to be verifying and resulting in good trends for us up to now. 2) The northern stream energy piece is what makes this one a little different too. The last storm was mostly one shortwave that amped up as it approached the SE. This one has a major second piece dropping in from the arctic. As long as it comes in west of us, it at least gives some light clipper type snow. I don't think its impossible or even unlikely that two storms take the same track in this situation, it's just a question of whether or not that first piece of energy can hold together as it crosses the country and the angle of attack for the second. What we want to see is that member from the GEFS I posted this AM.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I can't find it if it did.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not great resolution, but the basic idea with the CMC ensembles at 12z is that the ridge is a bit steeper and the trough is digging a bit westward:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't have much worth looking at for the 12z CMC ensembles but they are at least loading on stormvistawx and it looks like a tick west from 0z.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    We were talking yesterday about how the energy got squished and what we wanted to see for a better E TN look, so I pulled the really nice GEFS member 18 (for some reason COD [college of dupage] site has it as member 19): I think the above is pretty close to the fence we are swinging for.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    The long range 6z GFS had a few more chances towards the end of its run too. It was also trying to rebuild convection in the Western Pac at the end: Strat still looks interesting in the long range: Nothing screams SSW, but there is some warming on the GFS. I'm sure the severe fans would love a SSWE around Feb 23, lol. I'll be honest, normally I'm ready for spring by mid March, but if 2011 style severe is on the table for spring, yes, bring on the strat. warming and spring blocking.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the post I'm referring to:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    The ridge just squishes it. But if csnavywx was right, and models are breaking down the ridge too quickly, that would allow the northern stream to line up more with the southern vort like on the 12z CMC. If that ridge holds up just a little longer, there is more amp opportunity with that healthy vort as it ejects.
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