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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Will the Eastman Bubble rob Hawkins county? Does the 18z GFS on 12/30 know something we don't? Will Hooker connect with Tillman again in the second half? Time will tell.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    That represents the ENE wind from a 992 cyclone in the NC piedmont blowing the EB @Carvers Gap slightly off kilter.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    We're turning this into the TIMS thread. Thunder in the mountains model? Can it equal snow afterwards? If so, does severe weather = heavier snow? We'll know by January 3rd, lol.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    What do y'all think? Thread? It's halftime so we need something to do.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM coming in rather amped: Could just be the NAM being the NAM, but Masiello had a good argument on twitter late last night for the possibility of a more amped solution:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Can’t post any gifs right now since I’m in Knoxville on my phone but Euro 12z looks pretty unchanged from 6z wrt the Sunday wave @Flash yeah I was just referring to the Nam dumping snow at range.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    But you know what we are starting to get in range of as of 9z??? That's right, you guessed it, SREF plumes baby!!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overall, I'd say 6z Euro is pretty similar to its 0z run.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry, I would normally do a single post for 6z, but the NAMeve gets a special one. 6z GFS was even better, especially for NE TN and SW VA:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ladies and gentlemen, children of all ages, it's that most sacred time of the year. First NAMing of the year was imminent at 6z. It's like Christmas Eve. It's not a true NAMing, but you know its coming.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the most vivid lightning I’ve seen in a while! Mostly off to the SE of me here in MoCo.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro looking ever so slightly less constricted and a little less positively tilted with the energy as it approaches the Mississippi: 12z 18z Here's the 18z GFS in the same color scheme for comparison:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    You could really see it well on radar this AM, (this is not a current radar image) But like you said it's trying to lift back north now.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was meaning the line I've drawn in blue. It was really interesting up here in MoCo this AM. Left my house for a run at Frozen Head and it was ~ 61 Got to Frozen Head (~5 miles N of my house) and it was a cool 57. It wasn't a huge temp drop, but distincvtive.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've been impressed with how visible one of the boundaries is on satellite, pretty much all day: It almost follows the TN river
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Bigbald Part of it is how much the shortwave digs. The CMC is a much flatter look, so you don't get a SLP to develop and strengthen as far south: CMC: GFS The amplification of that shortwave has a lot to do with how they handle the big ridge over AK and the PNA ridging CMC: GFS: The GFS rotates the ridging equatorward, and that helps the shortwave dig downstream. Th CMC rotates it westward and so not as much amplification is forced.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm just kind of wary of a rug pull. But that's probably just a personal problem with me lol. The NAM looked good at the end of its run. The SLP was running way out N and E near Erie, PA ahead of the shortwave digging out the trough over the Red River valley: The energy dropping in looked better on the 6z Euro to, compared to 0z.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thanks for the heads up on the Ukie, I hadn't even thought to look at it this AM.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Strangely enough, the EPS members from 0z were the best look I've seen from that ensemble for the late weekend system, despite the fact that the OP was washed out: I mean, its still not great, but kind of surprising considering we are within around 5 days now and the OP was so washed out. 6z GEFS has some pretty good hits too, but also some duds.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah NCEP was having some data issues
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    File this one away in the "GFS was about to create an epic Gulf storm" file: It wouldn't be a winter if I didn't get this gif out at least once: I mean it isn't really the same, but there is a N stream piece racing to catch a southern stream vort. over the NW Gulf.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS back to a nice wave riding the front idea. In fact, I like the 12z's take pretty well: There's an extra piece of vorticity that dives in and helps amp the wave that was trying to flatten. That scenario pops a lee side low in the Upstate of SC, and that is pretty nice for eastern sections.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    The late overnight OP runs seem to be trending towards more of a washed out, positively tilted wave in a fast flow for the late weekend critter: GFS trend through 6z today: Euro trend through 0z last night: Luckily the ensembles still have a pretty wide spread of possible solutions, so its not over, yet: I suspect we get at least one good digital snow NAMing or SREF'ing out of this one. Although the Euro ensembles are stingy wrt to snow, the stubborn EPS RMM plot finally at long last wait for it wait a little longer ok next jump, I promise just kidding ok ok, made it to 8: Look, I know it is just a complicated set of variables mapped onto a plot, and that BOM's ensembles and some of the North American ones had been showing that for a while, but they kept slowing it down, so maybe we are finally going to get something the stubborn, but ultimately more accurate EPS members are seeing to reshuffle the nasty Pac. Our pesky TC near Darwin is fin ally on the move, but there still is to much lift near Darwin to substantially raise the barometric pressure there: To me, that satellite image has RMM 6/7 border written all over it. Here are the overnight long range ensembles (EPS, GEPS, and finally GEFS), giphified: Looks like in the semi medium range, they all like that ridge north of Alaska now.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour GFS still has the storm, but it is stronger and a bit further north. There is a solid band of snow running from Memphis to Lexington. Springfield, TN is the big winner with 16.6 inches on the 18z.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    So far it looks like it wants to send the Alaska/ Aleutians ridge packing:
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