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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we get a 76-77 repeat next year lol. Looks like that was a modest Nino after a mind numbing bunch of Ninas:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Stole this from the MA and thought it was interesting regarding La Nina from the NWS Mount Holly/ Philadelphia Source: https://www.weather.gov/phi/weatherstory Ah yes the Aleutian Low, a popular feature in La Ninas, lol. Seriously though, I thought La Nina's were remarkable for Aleutian ridging. TBH if you just showed me that H5 anomaly map and asked me if we were in a Nina or a Nino, I would say Nino. I think the huge anomalies in late December may be skewing it a bit:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think Carver's probably answered some of my questions regarding the SE ridge with his post, I was typing it as he was posting.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm kind of surprised that we've not seen an all out torch w/ SE ridge yet in the long range. I expected it to be from maybe the 6th - 22nd based on the cycle we've been in since fall. But it seems like it keeps getting pushed back a bit and that was why I posted the 28th for the next colder cycle. Even though the SOI has been up and down daily, the 30 day trend has been downward: It was up and up through most of December.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yep. RGEM has been pretty darn good this year. If not always perfect at least consistent. It's at range but it favors the ice to continue with the next wave Thursday. Not much else does right now, so it will be interesting to see how that evolves.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think our next monthly window starts the 28th.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Latest Euro:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Absolutely pouring rain this AM. RadarScope’s hydro meteor classification even popped a few pixels of hail heading my way.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here comes the old, oozing south over Nebraska and Iowa:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll use the ever stingy NWS model blend to kick it off: Looks like some CAD against the Ouachitas and Ozarks
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Time was, a halo around the moon tis time of the year indicated snow on the way. The old folks also used to say if snow hung around on the mountains for a while it was waiting on another one. Well, we met both of those criteria over the past few days. Halo last night: snow yesterday:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the NAM and RGEM ticked SE again with the freezing line. I'll start a thread for it.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Halo around the moon tonight. Remember when that meant snow in winter?
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yep
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing about the strat. is that I don't see any signs of it strengthening again yet, so if there is an attempt at a retrograding Scandinavian ridge later in Feb. there may not be a lot of interference. A few of the latest GFS runs have been trying to show just that, but I'd say its too far out to worry too much about now.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Do these HPs usually press better than modeled, or is that just a weenie wish casting rule?
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully we can get a good NAMing over the next few days. It's been a while.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 25 is love! well, if you live in the pink area lol
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Def. a nice cold feed oozing down from the arctic:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro took some steps toward the OP GFS at 12z, IMO.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just from reading the intro to the paper Furtado cited, it seems to me this "wave reflection" activity is something we're still struggling with: https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurable/content/journals$002fmwre$002f148$002f4$002fmwr-d-19-0339.1.xml?t:ac=journals%24002fmwre%24002f148%24002f4%24002fmwr-d-19-0339.1.xml Here is a key paragraph IMO: "Second, the polar vortex can also act as a reflective surface, preventing the absorption of upward-propagating waves. Troposphere induced waves entering the stratosphere are then reflected downward, thereby influencing tropospheric circulation (Harnik 2009; Shaw et al. 2010; Perlwitz and Harnik 2004; Kodera et al. 2008, 2013). While the occurrence of wave reflection is well documented (Perlwitz and Harnik 2003; Shaw et al. 2010; Nath et al. 2014), its impacts on surface weather have been given less attention. Recently, Kretschmer et al. (2018a) showed that downward reflected waves over Canada favor North Pacific blocking, respectively, a negative phase of the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO), and are associated with cold spells over Canada and the northeastern United States, consistent with earlier case studies (Kodera et al. 2008, 2013). Nevertheless, the exact role of wave reflection for North American cold spells, as well as the possibilities for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting has not yet been comprehensively assessed."
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's a thought. Strat stuff seems to give models problems. I think we can all agree on that. How do models visualize things like the wave reflection Furtado is describing? Is it just a storm driving poleward carrying heat that hits a stout SPV and gets shunted back down (in altitude and latitude) in the flow? What hPa level does that happen at? We normally look at H5 vort maps for storms, surface reflections, or the jet stream and 200 or 300mb to see a storm and we have all those atmospheric levels on all the models we look at so its pretty easy to see a storm forming, breaking, and eventually dissipating. Does it really disappear though? Does the energy flux up to like 100mb, 50 mb, and eventually 10mb and take heat from the mid latitudes with it? It just seems to me that there is this nether region of modeling (at least as I usually use them) above the jet levels and I have no clue how or if that gets modeled. We always look at models as 2D projections, but really those higher and lower heights are just that, bowls and hills in the atmosphere creating baroclinic zones. I wish there was some way to tilt the projection and get a 3rd dimension on a planetary scale, something besides a sounding or even one of those cool cross section soundings. I think I kind of answered my own question toward the end of that, but I guess what I'm getting at is this. As waves get "reflected" (whatever that actually means) could that cause some blind spots for modeling?
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Excellent! I was actually interested to see some of the indvidual members after the OP day 10 look.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Allow me. 2019:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it is definitely decelerating and weakening and looks to weaken quite a bit more: I guess though instead of splitting it as waves break, those waves that bring the warming are being reflected back down across the north pole into Canada. I really wish there was some 3D way to visualize not just the SPV but how a wave would attack the SPV and then be shunted back down to drive the pattern over N America.
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