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Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. Holston_River_Rambler
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Totally unscientific contribution from me, so take with a boulder of salt: I feel like in the past we've gotten into pattern ruts in the fall (November seems to be the month I used to notice this beginning when I was younger) and that is the typical pattern we have until Spring. Best description I can give is a few weeks of a pattern-------> reload and relax----------> pattern again, rinse and repeat, unless we have some major change like a stout SSW. With that in mind, I have to say I'm happy with the current set up for this weekend, IF this is the sort of pattern that will eventually repeat. To be clear, I'm not trying to say there's some sort of magical storm this weekend for any of us, but the setup would be great in January/ February. Energy diving just beneath us and surface low cruising across N. FL. The image below is a GFS sounding for Friday at 1 PM. And look, I get it, it a GFS sounding from one operational run at 78 hrs in October, but there have been recent Januarys when what we are getting this weekend, is the best we could manage in January! Think about this too: Euro and GFS show a relax after this weekend/ early next week and don't we usually get our chances at the end of a pattern, before the relax? Is there a chance this is the type of pattern that is only now starting to set up for later on? I'd like to think so and hope so, but have no idea. Been wanting to ask @Carvers Gap about a comment you made last winter, so I could to maybe think about some analogues. There was a point when NC was getting snow and we were not and you mentioned one year in the 80s (82 or 3?), where they had a really good year and then we had one on our side of the mountains the next year. I was thinking about looking at the summer between those two years to see if there were any similarities, but can't remember the year.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Cold frosty (Sunday, 10/21) morning on House mountain in Know. Pic one looking N toward Campbell co. pic 2 looking SW toward Knoxville
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    The following link is for a winter forecast for the mountains of NC, but for those of us in the east, particularly those in TRI, could be helpful: http://booneweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf?fbclid=IwAR22AkiaseA_6KmeX5JwuatYeK38ux0RKWB4KJXgiaRV9j2XcLwwTmdmJZw
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Anastasia State Park, FL sunrise:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Man it was nice to hear Rocky Top at an opponents' stadium for the first time in a while!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hey, you never know, Blacksburg NWS posted that Snowshoe, WV had its first flakes this AM. You are a lot further north than all of us Blunderstorm, so maybe not too far off:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Beat me to it!
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    October convection, trying hard near Kingsport, TN More, near Knoxville:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS (old and new), EURO, CMC, and NAVGEM all show some sort of tropical critter aimed at the SE in the 7 - 10 day time frame as the Ridge O' DOOM(c) starts to slip north and east and realigned from SE to NW. Maybe this ultimately helps change things up? Of course it is in the 7 - 10 day range, so who knows. Even if it happens, my experience makes me think the 10 days+ window is more likely as these things tend to take longer than models suggest. Some models say Gulf, some say SE coast, so will be interesting to see how it plays it if it happens. Could end up just being a piddly little tropical low resupplying us with some nice, refreshing tropical air in mid October . le sigh
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was pretty happy with the game this week, despite what the score was. Take away that early fumble that GA recovered and add the interception that was called back on a penalty....add Pruitt not going for 2 twice and its 24 - 14. Others may disagree, but I don't think UT was that far and a couple of breaks from the score looking a lot better. Not sure if Georgia was having an off day (I had expected something like 70 - 3), but it didn't feel like they (Georgia) just made a bunch of mistakes.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oaks always seem to hang on so long. I finally saw a Maple getting around 50% red near the Cedar Bluff exit. I think it only got down to 62 this weekend at my location near downtown Knoxville, but it felt so cool I ran with a hoodie. Usually I can't wear them until the low 50s. Ray's Weather Center (mostly covers the high country of W. North Carolina) had a hopeful post on Facebook. Seems to think the endless ridge is forcing a lot of cold to pool up in western and central Canada. Maybe it flips hard when it flips, just barely in time, and we still get some good color in some locations. @jaxjagman sorry you haven't been feeling so well, but glad everything came back negative
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wow! That is a lot!
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Getting some reports from friends in Roane County and south of Flash Flooding and MRX has a warning out, but man, that slug of moisture over AL looks ugly for some of these areas.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Glad y'all are getting some rain out that way, but wish it wasn't all at once. Fun swirl on radar over East TN this AM: https://imgur.com/a/S5r5GwY
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Desperation has set in for cooler weather. I'll share this to see what y'all think. Kind of aligns with what we have been saying, but as Flash points out, Typhoons can shake things up either way. Cranky isn't always right, but I really like his discussions of the overall flow in this type of map (cropped only parts that have to do with us): Maybe I'm just getting too desperate. Source:http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e092418.htm
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Seeing some reports of flash flooding toward Middle TN on twitter:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ok, I think we finally have the a good trajectory for the eastern great valley: https://imgur.com/a/VlJ1UbS (end of the loop) Also, an image indicating what I was trying to figure out in the Florence thread. Sure it could be just a random band, but consider what the precip. is doing in Monroe county and southward as the loop goes on... At this time, the 850 low looks to be over or near Hartwell, GA. I know this is kinda random and rather insignificant stuff for now, but curious for implications for the flow for future winter storms. 925mb flow, right down the valley:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    In Crab Orchard/ Cumberland mountains in Cumberland County, looking SE across the great eastern TN valley towards Flo rolling in across the Smokies. Nice, fresh, almost sea breeze out of the NE and Ozone Falls
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've been wondering too, if the center can track just right, if the downsloping might be offset by a perfect trajectory out of the NE, down the valley. It would still be an overall downslope flow, but the plateau and Smokies funneling that flow could force it to narrow and change speed and maybe create some lift that way. Not saying anything even approaching what places east of Blue Ridge will see, but might offset the overall downslope if the flow gets just right. I've noticed that sometimes as snowstorms are heading up the coast, that precip. can hang around in the central, great eastern valley and areas NE, longer than it seems like it should and have wondered why this might be. A Met. in the bigger Flo thread mentioned frictional convergence this AM and while this is not the same process at all, it got me thinking about how the valley/ mountains might impact flow/ speed/ trajectory and shape meso/ microscale convergence or divergence. An example: South of where the Crab Orchard Mountains/ Frozen Head bulge out from the Cumberland Plateau, the angle of the plateau's edge in respect to the valley then plunges slightly more S than the edge of the Smokies, and maybe this forces some of the air a little eastward, pushing it into the rest of the flow still heading more SW down the valley. (Image 1) None of this may apply at all here, since the overall motion of the storm looks to be WNW changing to N with time, as opposed to the usual SW to NE, but will definitely be trying to watch radar to look for any of the above. On the satellite today I did notice something along these lines, at least with clouds: (Image 2) Although it looks like it invalidates my reading of the southern valley in aiding convergence. Maybe the flow is more across the mountains in the southern, eastern valley (thus more downsloping) with a NE flow and the more subtle processes can only aid lift further north where the downsloping is less, since the flow isn't directly across the Smokies, but roughly down I-81?
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Throwing this in for posterity: https://imgur.com/a/D1kdwFm Nice example of storms developing in the mountains and rolling into the valley following outflow boundaries.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Operational GFS, GEFS, EPS (39/50 members), GEPS showing a breakdown of Ridge o' Doom by late month. Still a ways off, but...let there be hope! Maybe the long awaited retrograde finally happens.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    I found this site which does have an "experimental analogue track" section in a drop down menu for current storms or areas of potential development, but not sure if this is what you meant. http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm glad for us in east TN and especially SW NC that the southern Apps aren't in the right quadrant of this sucker. If it was sitting and spinning, even for 24 hours, over let's say Atlanta, I can't even imagine what upslope on the NC Blue Ridge would do. Unfortunately VA Blue Ridge further north may find out if the Euro is right. What a high pressure ridge! I can't remember (I am relatively young though) any hurricane on this trajectory stopping or dying in the Carolinas or VA. Even the rare analogues that the twitterverse has been tossing out at least moved along. The best analogy I can think of when watching the upper level flow, is looking at a river, where a shoal or log sticks into the current. Sometimes where the current rushes as it's forced by the object, there's an area inland from that point where the water sort of sits still or moves in unexpected ways, so that it if you run out of the current into the still water with a boat, you can sometimes just sit still and fish, with no anchor. Here I see the jet over Canada and northern US as the faster current and the high pressure ridge as the calm. I feel like it's kind of a wait and see mode at this point and we won't know if the "stall out" solution is right or wrong until she rolls inland. All I can see as difference makers are the exact strength of the ridge and it's axis. Looking at upper level potential vorticity on GFS ( https://imgur.com/a/YigeivZ ) there does seem to be a little bit of cyclonic vorticity that fujiwaras it inland a little bit, but that's all I can see. The Euro I have access to has a 300mb potential vorticity, but I'm not sure the two maps show exactly the same thing. It does look quite a bit different. Euro image:
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